A mercenary might look at this fracas in the Republican Party as a natural consequence of a politician's overriding desire to get elected. The misguided tea party-evangelists, bless their hearts, that oddly attached themselves to the GOP, and even more oddly, the GOP welcomed them!, will be able to get re-elected so long as they come from safe districts, provided, that is, they can muster enough financial support to run a campaign. I am talking about the House here.
But there is way more to Washington Politics than the House of Representatives. The Old Line GOP functionaries have their sites on the Senate and White House. To gain these prizes you have to run at large, and therein lies great difficulties ahead for the Republican party, a party that has come down on the wrong side, according to opinion polls, of major issues, and thus insists on shooting itself in the foot -- gay rights, gays in the military, women's rights, military spending, gun control, health care, social security, medicare, medicaid, immigration. This is not to say that by influence (i.e., money) and obstructive tactics the GOP has not often been able to prevail against public sentiment, it has in some cases. And when it could not win an outright victory, it has often succeeded in throwing a monkey wrench into the works. It was also helped in fortuitous ways by Democrat incompetence.
The Democrats are not, and have not been, the monolith that the Republicans have been as of late- though just now we are seeing the first cracks appear in that monolith. Since at least the days of the Dixiecrats there has been a core of senators and representatives within the Democrat party that are Democrats in name only since they have had a nearly 100% Republican voting record. These are the old-line, Deep South "Democrats" (Dixiecrats, Boll Weevils, Blue Dog Democrats, etc.) -- consider Gene Taylor, while in the House he virtually never voted with his party, except on non-controversial, inconsequential issues.
In recent years, we are finally seeing white, Deep South, Republican politicians actually running as Republicans, and Deep South, black, Democrat politicians actually running as Democrats. This makes sense, but having it take as long as it did to get the labels glued on the right drawers does not speak highly of the typical Deep South voter.
Still, even after properly relabeling these Deep South politicians, there is no Democrat monolith. You had Max Baucus, for example, a Montana "Democrat", torpedoing the ACA; thus doing the bidding of the Senate Republican leadership against his own party. The Democrats are not a monolith.
And the Republicans are not normally either -- the monolithic Republican voting block in the House and Senate since 2009 has been remarkable. A testament, certainly, to whomever was holding the Republican strings in the House and Senate -- we assume it was Boehner and McConnell. The monolith spoke as a unified body. Its message was extraordinary; it announced that its primary goal was to get rid of the White House's present occupant. Apparently good government and effective legislation was a distant second on the minds of the ideologues from whom the monolith was constructed.
We have a mid-term election coming up. A realignment is highly unlikely. The Democrats will continue to control the Senate and the Republicans the House. But in 2016 we have a presidential election coming up. Despite Barack Obama's dismal approval rating in 2013, unless the Republicans can shed themselves of the tea party- evangelists, they have little chance of gaining control of the Senate and only a slightly better chance of putting their candidate into the White House, because these are at-large races, and overall public sentiment does matter in at-large elections. They may be able to gain the White House by concentrating on a propitious mix of red States with large numbers of electors -- but their problem is that, except for Texas, there isn't any. All the States, save Texas, with large numbers of electors are normally blue, or purple at best! Their only hope may be to surreptitiously back an independent candidate with strong appeal to Democrats, or failing that, to look for another Kathryn Harris in the woodpile of a big blue State with a Republican Governor. The House on the other hand could remain in Republican control for years, so long as the safe districts remain intact.
The Republicans, despite dismal prospects, are not content with only the House. This is why they will break now from their tea party-evangelist contingent and let them twist slowly in the wind. Meanwhile the Republican monolith will crumble, while they work feverishly to re-build the GOP on more centrist lines in time for the November 2016 election. There are many smart and cagey Republicans, they know they have little chance to gain the Senate or White House if they endorse policy positions out of step with what the majority of voters want, and they know that changing U.S. demographics does not favor them if they stick to the monolith's message of "over my dead body".
Democracy is a bitch when you know you're right and everyone else is wrong!
