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GOOG Oct strangle on the 18th, close the 19th.
- Thread starter forex-forex
- Start date
Quote from forex-forex:
+ 5% or - 8%
i don't know how much hope you have
i'd salvage whatever i could at the open.
But seriously, the mkt is entirely waiting on what the analysts do. If someone like Amtech says hiring practices and increased margin pressure cap the stock near term, you could get a 30 pt move tomorrow.
Just don't forget the January 07 earnings move... Good #s, the stock moved from 505 to 480-486 settle in postmarket, then in the morning gapped to 518 in premarket, then fell off a cliff to close 480.
At this point you better pray someone sold a straddle far out of the $$$.
personally for me I'm hoping for a selloff. I bought 1 +640/-630 oct put vertical, and 3 +600/-570 put verticals near the close. Took a gamble. Likely even if we get a mild selloff, I'm in the red.
If you want something to dream for, look at the SPWR chart today. That was an earnings response.
Quote from forex-forex:
I don't believe in "trading option manipulation" or in the "maximum pain" theory.
It does exist at times. In particular with stocks such as goog, where often options are traded more than the outright stock (due to high stock price and low options price due to low vol, better allocation of cash).
But judging by the price action this past month, if I had to guess, we get a 640 close tommorow or a 620 close (second guess). 570 is the third guess, but that seems impossible considering the earnings were so good. [damn, looking back i should've bought butterflies...]
Yesterday, I opened up an iron butterfly (B 630P S640P S640C B650C) for close to 9, thinking that GOOG would not move too much, or if it did, it would be backing and filling close to the short strikes. I was okay with the risk/reward of 1 vs. 9. Don't ask how many contracts. LOL
In extended hours, I thought the non-movement was too good to be true. Jackpot, I thought? No, I know better. LOL
However, this morning, with the underlying going over 658, going barely under 650, it seemed I better close this thing out - just over 8.
Of course, 5 minutes later, I could have closed it for the low to mid 6s!!! A profit is a profit but I'm definitely no prophet.
AZD
Spin, are you still there? Pizza is on me.
In extended hours, I thought the non-movement was too good to be true. Jackpot, I thought? No, I know better. LOL
However, this morning, with the underlying going over 658, going barely under 650, it seemed I better close this thing out - just over 8.
Of course, 5 minutes later, I could have closed it for the low to mid 6s!!! A profit is a profit but I'm definitely no prophet.
AZD
Spin, are you still there? Pizza is on me.
Quote from forex-forex:
Decided to open the position today since it's a slow day for GOOG.
GOOG at $620.00.
1 contract 650 Oct call @ $6.90.
1 contract 600 Oct put @ $9.10.
Commission $70.00.
Total $1670.00.
Maybe a break from options for a while. Take a break and do some reading. IV crush is a thing you really need to understand.