"Golden Arches" Project

The bad things WITHIN THIS METHODOLOGY OF THE CURRENT TOOLS USED, for this short EUR/GBP

The 4 Hr. CR is Long and the DeMarker Zones are not sensitive to THIS instrument. (you know this pair is on a mission and being manipulated...the DeMarker does not lie)


THATS ALL

This trade is killing me, but at least I am not too heavily exposed like the EUR/AUD trade earlier...may I remind you that if I had the staying power, i would have not banked any loss on that trade. It just that I cannot tolerate the drawdowns that come with heavy exposure...I will gladly forfeit the yields.
 
Folks about the stops....

I believe that there is always going to be enough time before the Daily CR turns-over for me to get out with a profit or a loss...just so I know when it is time to get out and I entered early enough in the Arch.

I hope to be able to demonstrate this and if I must put on Hedge trades to get the time needed in the Arch Gyrations, then I will find the inverse correlations....(sometimes the zig-zag indicators gives me clues as to what to expect from an inverse relationship, but this is more advanced than I would like to cover, just now)

Now if some of you have smacking good stop ideas...bring them on...I need to get blind-sided...until then the stops are mental and price/indicator based.

I will try and keep the trades between 2-14 days....but there are too many things going for this EUR/GBP trade within the capacity of this method, for me to bank the loss now. I have about ten days until NFP week.

Michael B.
 
I'm not sure what anchoring the CR does besides locking in the past, and slowing down the inevitable change when it happens. But I haven't followed very closely, so there may be a very good explanation that I'm not aware of, but I just don't see any logical reasons for anchoring.

And generally, stops are a function of your method / system, it is set according to historical values gained through backtesting. Without the complete rules of the system, you will not have a stop method. And without a stop method, you are leaving the door to risk and your emotions wide open.
 
Anchoring locks the spot for the deviations and the high and low of the bands to report correctly. A rolling can identify an entry point...but an anchoring will then allow a stop methodology to work based on the existing bands and their FUTURE statistics (rjb need to write the code for all of the bands) to follow which include high and low and fibs in between...this stop methodology has not been discussed yet & I was hoping that my hints would enable more to see and smack me with. I would like this to be a team effort and I have some ideas...but FIRST...I wanted to hear from you guys...

I will need further band statistics from rjb to be coded...but this is a step by step process...I hope.

All good things can come to those that can wait.

Thanks for reading JB3...

I hope that some of you can see the robust and complete system being built here...and it will all be very simple with the existing tools we have right now...we do not need another indicator, as we have the most powerful method right in front of our faces...regression...fib deviations....exhaustion...

IHaveAVisionSavant


Quote from JB3:

I'm not sure what anchoring the CR does besides locking in the past, and slowing down the inevitable change when it happens. But I haven't followed very closely, so there may be a very good explanation that I'm not aware of, but I just don't see any logical reasons for anchoring.

And generally, stops are a function of your method / system, it is set according to historical values gained through backtesting. Without the complete rules of the system, you will not have a stop method. And without a stop method, you are leaving the door to risk and your emotions wide open.
More...
 
Dart_target.gif
"EXITED EARLY FOR A 40 PIP PROFIT"
Code: 
TIME   4%                       CONFI                            #of   INT
[U](MST)[/U]  [U]UNITS[/U]   [U]PAIR[/U]     [U]ACTION[/U]  [u]DENCE[/u]  [U]SPREAD[/U]    [U]PRICE[/U]   [U]TP[/U]      [U]PIPS[/U]  [U]DIFF[/U]
22:16  33,336  CHF/JPY  Exit           3 PIPS    96.71   97.11   40    Positive
Stop:
Trade Decision Criteria met: 4Hr. DeMarker was a strong solid line sell.

Open Trades & Statistics:
Code: 
[u]# of UNITS[/u]  [u]PAIR[/u]      [u]Direction[/u]   [u]PRICE[/u]        [u]TP[/u]       [u]# of PIPS[/u]
51,413      EUR/GBP   Short       0.6671 avg.  0.6670   1
13,540      USD/MXN   Short       10.9898      10.9556  342
Code: 
Balance                        # of DAYS                         Open
Banked        Gain      ROI %   TRACKED     UPL         DD       Leverage
                       
[color=blue]$14,238.44    $793.21   +5.88   22[/color]          [color=red]-$751.01    -5.27%   6.0 :1[/color]
COMMENTARY: Welcome to "Golden Arches". This is a test. Please stay tuned for the trades to be illustrated in the "Golden Arch's" trading alerts thread after 02/13/07, or as soon as I get flat in these open trades.

I took the pips now and reduced some leverage too.


Tuesday 2/20/07 cst (Forecast/Previous):
Code: 
1:00am     EUR German PPI m/m    0.1% 0.0%   
1:15am     CHF Trade Balance    0.75B 0.43B   
1:45am     EUR France GDP q/q (r)    0.4% 0.0%   
2:15am     CHF PPI m/m    -0.1% 0.0%   
3:30am     GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing    10.0B 7.2B   
3:30am     GBP M4 Money Supply m/m    0.8% 0.9%   
6:00am     CAD CPI m/m    0.1% 0.2%   
6:00am     CAD Core CPI m/m    0.1% -0.2%   
7:30am     CAD Leading Indicators m/m    0.4% 0.3%   
9:30am     USD Fed Governor Bies Speaks        
5:00pm     AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks        
6:30pm     AUD WPI q/q    0.9% 0.8%   
6:30pm     AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m    1.0% 0.8%   
Tentative  JPY Interest Rate Statement    0.25% 0.25%
 
Dart_target.gif
"EXITED EARLY FOR A 74 PIP PROFIT"
Code: 
TIME   4%                       CONFI                            #of   INT
[U](MST)[/U]  [U]UNITS[/U]   [U]PAIR[/U]     [U]ACTION[/U]  [u]DENCE[/u]  [U]SPREAD[/U]    [U]PRICE[/U]   [U]TP[/U]      [U]PIPS[/U]  [U]DIFF[/U]
04:13  13,540  USD/MXN  Exit           40 PIPS   10.9898 10.9824 74    Positive
Stop:
Trade Decision Criteria met: 4Hr. DeMarker was a dotted line buy.

Open Trades & Statistics:
Code: 
[u]# of UNITS[/u]  [u]PAIR[/u]      [u]Direction[/u]   [u]PRICE[/u]        [u]TP[/u]       [u]# of PIPS[/u]
51,413      EUR/GBP   Short       0.6671 avg.  0.6670   1
Code: 
Balance                        # of DAYS                         Open
Banked        Gain      ROI %   TRACKED     UPL         DD       Leverage
                       
[color=blue]$14,247.79    $802.56   +5.95   23[/color]          [color=red]-$751.73    -5.28%   5.0 :1[/color]
COMMENTARY: Welcome to "Golden Arches". This is a test. Please stay tuned for the trades to be illustrated in the "Golden Arch's" trading alerts thread after 02/13/07, or as soon as I get flat in these open trades.

I banked some pips now and can always re-enter on the otherside of the Demarker. But someone remind me this time to re-enter with the 40 pip spread zone...not the 300 pip. Leverage is now down to 5:1. I still have this Short EUR/GBP to contend with.


Tuesday 2/20/07 cst (Forecast/Previous):
Code: 
6:00am     CAD CPI m/m    0.1% 0.2%   
6:00am     CAD Core CPI m/m    0.1% -0.2%   
7:30am     CAD Leading Indicators m/m    0.4% 0.3%   
9:30am     USD Fed Governor Bies Speaks        
5:00pm     AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks        
6:30pm     AUD WPI q/q    0.9% 0.8%   
6:30pm     AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m    1.0% 0.8%   
Tentative  JPY Interest Rate Statement    0.25% 0.25%
 
I have looked back in the DeMarker sell zone in the EUR/GBP ...and everytime it has hung out between the red dotted and solid lines FOR THIS LONG OF A TIME, it comes down swiftly and hard...

I would like to be out by Friday...and can I have a menu please in the restuarant of Forex?

I'm goin' Down...down....down...(sang in Bruce Springsteen's voice)
 
ES, how about putting up the drawdown per trade to see the efficiency? This would help the rookies understand what they have to hold through.


The Ever Kinda Tactful VIPER
 
Given that you now have the ability to lock in the curves for trades. Do you think the current EUR/GBP would have broke the trend based on the original curve when the position was entered?
 
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