"Golden Arches" Project

I use my orange lines as target markers and CR anchorer's as rjb suggested..they serve two purposes now...there are only targets on OPEN trades...thus I anchor the CR..

now how in the world do I document this....well i am the writer..this is my problem...

give me some time to digest this and "live" with it...I will get the words down...
 
The USD/MXN is looking like a short that will line up very soon...we are at the top of the arch on the 4HR...and the Ergodic is getting ready...Daily CR agrees with the short too...

spreads are wide in Oanda for a little while longer...

Lets get this pair anchored...bbaaaaabbby
 
Dart_target.gif
"ENTERED SHORT"
Code: 
TIME   4%                       CONFI                            #of   INT
[U](MST)[/U]  [U]UNITS[/U]   [U]PAIR[/U]     [U]ACTION[/U]  [u]DENCE[/u]  [U]SPREAD[/U]    [U]PRICE[/U]   [U]TP[/U]      [U]PIPS[/U]  [U]DIFF[/U]
23:21  13,540  USD/MXN  Short   3.5    300 PIPS  10.9898 10.9556 342   Positive
Stop: Partial hedge in USD
Trade Decision Criteria met: 4Hr. DeMarker had a dotted line signal. 4 hr. CR before virgin (very early). 4 hr. CR & Daily CR in agreement.

Open Trades & Statistics:
Code: 
[u]# of UNITS[/u]  [u]PAIR[/u]      [u]Direction[/u]   [u]PRICE[/u]        [u]TP[/u]       [u]# of PIPS[/u]
33,336      CHF/JPY   Long        96.71        97.34    63
51,413      EUR/GBP   Short       0.6671 avg.  0.6670   1
23,673      USD/HKD   Long        7.8110 avg.  7.8136   26 
13,540      USD/MXN   Short       10.9898      10.9556  342
Code: 
Balance                        # of DAYS                         Open
Banked        Gain      ROI %   TRACKED     UPL         DD       Leverage
                       
[color=blue]$14,116.87    $654.45   +5.04   21[/color]          [color=red]-$618.94    -4.38%   9.8 :1[/color]
COMMENTARY: Welcome to "Golden Arches". This is a test. Please stay tuned for the trades to be illustrated in the "Golden Arch's" trading alerts thread after 02/13/07, or as soon as I get flat in these open trades.

This would have a confidence of 4 if the Ergodic was signaling and tomorrow was not a US holiday. It was a tough call to get the timing right, the Demarker was running away and the Ergodic was no help. The 4Hr. Cr is real early but I took this cycle for the entry as I do not know what will happen after the US holiday. Now this one is a big mover and the trade ticket calculates at 25:1 leverage, thus the smaller 13,540 unit trade.


Monday 2/19/07 cst (Forecast/Previous):
Code: 
All Day  USD Holiday: President's Day        
7:30am   CAD International Securities Transactions    3.8B 11.0B   
7:30am   CAD Wholesale Sales m/m    0.6% 0.1%
 
Dart_target.gif
"EXITED EARLY FOR A 13 PIP PROFIT"
Code: 
TIME   4%                       CONFI                            #of   INT
[U](MST)[/U]  [U]UNITS[/U]   [U]PAIR[/U]     [U]ACTION[/U]  [u]DENCE[/u]  [U]SPREAD[/U]    [U]PRICE[/U]   [U]TP[/U]      [U]PIPS[/U]  [U]DIFF[/U]
00:04  23,673  USD/HKD  Exit           5 PIPS    7.8110  7.8123  13    Positive
Stop:
Trade Decision Criteria met: 4Hr. DeMarker signaling short and 4 hr. CR turning short with a mature Ergodic that could turn.

Open Trades & Statistics:
Code: 
[u]# of UNITS[/u]  [u]PAIR[/u]      [u]Direction[/u]   [u]PRICE[/u]        [u]TP[/u]       [u]# of PIPS[/u]
33,336      CHF/JPY   Long        96.71        97.34    63
51,413      EUR/GBP   Short       0.6671 avg.  0.6670   1
13,540      USD/MXN   Short       10.9898      10.9556  342
Code: 
Balance                        # of DAYS                         Open
Banked        Gain      ROI %   TRACKED     UPL         DD       Leverage
                       
[color=blue]$14,121.06    $675.83   +5.01   22[/color]          [color=red]-$641.08    -4.54%   8.0 :1[/color]
COMMENTARY: Welcome to "Golden Arches". This is a test. Please stay tuned for the trades to be illustrated in the "Golden Arch's" trading alerts thread after 02/13/07, or as soon as I get flat in these open trades.

It is better to get the open leverage down but I liked this USD/HKD because it really never chopped me around that much. On the other hand, the open Short EUR/GBP is an extended hold that found a new level and I will need to trade myself out of it...with profits from other pairs.

New traders, I think you can see the hard work of trading...Trading is not a get rich quick scheme. I am literally struggling to stay positive with profit, at this point (GAIN-UPL=$34.75). I am a conservative trader that knows his limits. I cannot handle much drawdown and do not use much leverage, thus yields are smaller. My days are consumed with managing risk, not yield. All of the posts I make and the news reports I list are to be used to avoid risk, not trade yield. For example the CAD reports tomorrow, so I would wait to put on any pairs with CAD.


Monday 2/19/07 cst (Forecast/Previous):
Code: 
All Day  USD Holiday: President's Day        
7:30am   CAD International Securities Transactions    3.8B 11.0B   
7:30am   CAD Wholesale Sales m/m    0.6% 0.1%
 
note to self: when I went short the USD/MXN Sunday evening (mst) it had a 300 pip spread...it is now at a 40 pip spread on a US bank holiday...obviousley the marketmaker deals with global banks, such as UBS and Futures...

Fortunatley, I caught enough of a move down to get right (notice this happens often after midnight on the price chart...that move down as that is what is being presented to you by Oanda. I wonder what the other Marketmakers present in this pair?)....It is tough to play variable spreads when you have no control over when and how much...I should read this link below more:

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/spreads/recent_spreads.shtml

spread_USD_MXN.png
 
CurviDeviants:

I am discontinuing the use of the Ergodic Indicator. This is a project right? I can do that right?

The reason is:
I cannot tune it to be in the correct wavelength for more precision when I get into a DeMarker zone (between the dotted and solid color lines of the same color). I find myself not even using it.

Thoughts?

Putting together the correct trend, momentum tools, oscillators and levels are a good thing...but the loose attributes, this "whore of a method" illustrates through live forward testing, needs a smacking good timing confirmation...and the Ergodic is not it... or I just do not know how to tune it...

The statistics of the inner bands and the breadth is just awesome. The one sided use of the "Extreme Zone DeMarker" (excuse me Mr. Tom Demark) with the agreement of the 2-timeframe arches are safe...

The anchoring ofthe CR, is nice for shorter than 2-14 day timeframe traders....(yes I realize some of you trade this YOUR way...and that is good!..but you must understand I need to present this method in general and take the safest way...as some of you can get in real trouble)

Michael B.
 
About the short EUR/GBP.

If the daily says it closes between the inner bands 62.1% of the time and I do not even need the price to fall down that far...

and

Price is up there on the high band in a CR Daily Arch that is short and not showing any signs of turning..WHAT WOULD YOU THINK?
 
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