"Golden Arches" Project

different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
different price level and may never come back to where it was.
 
Dart_target.gif
TARGET REACHED FOR A 50 PIP PROFIT
Code: 
TIME    4%                        CONFI                          #of    INT
[U](MST)[/U]   [U]UNITS[/U]   [U]PAIR[/U]     [U]ACTION[/U]   [u]DENCE[/u]  [U]SPREAD[/U]  [U]PRICE[/U]   [U]TP[/U]      [U]PIPS[/U]   [U]DIFF[/U]
16:50   28,167  CAD/JPY  Short           5 PIPS  103.81  103.31  50     Neg
Stop: not yet
Trade Decision Criteria met: Target reached (upper inner band)

Open Trades & Statistics:
Code: 
[u]# of UNITS[/u]    [u]PAIR[/u]       [u]Direction[/u]    [u]PRICE[/u]         [u]TP[/u]        [u]# of PIPS[/u]
30,925        EUR/GBP    Short        0.6632 avg.   0.6631     1
 9,957        USD/HKD    Long         7.8136        7.8164    28
Code: 
Balance                        # of DAYS                         Open
Banked        Gain      ROI %   TRACKED     UPL         DD       Leverage
                       
[color=blue]$14,095.72    $650.49   +4.80   17[/color]          [color=red]-$375.61    -2.66%   3.7 :1[/color]
COMMENTARY: Welcome to "Golden Arches". This is a test. Please stay tuned for the trades to be illustrated in the "Golden Arch's" trading alerts thread after 02/13/07, or as soon as I get flat in these open trades.

Thursday. 2/15/07 cst
Code: 
3:30am   GBP Retail Sales m/m                            0.2%   1.1%   
4:00am   CHF ZEW Expectations                           -10.8   
5:00am   EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks        
7:30am   USD Empire State Business Conditions Index      10.5   9.1   
7:30am   USD Import Price Index m/m                     -0.2%   1.1%   
7:30am   USD Unemployment Claims        
7:30am   CAD Manufacturing Shipments m/m                 0.6%   2.3%   
8:00am   USD TIC Report                                  60.0B  68.4B   
8:00am   USD St. Louis Fed President Poole Speaks        
8:15am   USD Industrial Production m/m                   0.0%    0.4%   
8:15am   USD Capacity Utilization Rate                   81.8%   81.8%   
9:00am   USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks        
11:00am  USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index        3.5     8.3   
12:00pm  USD NAHB Housing Market Index                   35      35   
5:50pm   JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m       -0.1%   -0.3%
 
Dart_target.gif
"AVERAGE IN/DOWN"
Code: 
TIME    4%                        CONFI                          #of    INT
[U](MST)[/U]   [U]UNITS[/U]   [U]PAIR[/U]     [U]ACTION[/U]   [u]DENCE[/u]  [U]SPREAD[/U]  [U]PRICE[/U]   [U]TP[/U]      [U]PIPS[/U]   [U]DIFF[/U]
20:44   13,716  USD/HKD  Long     3      5 PIPS  7.8091  7.8136  26     Pos
Stop: not yet
Trade Decision Criteria met: 4Hr. Demarker

Open Trades & Statistics:
Code: 
[u]# of UNITS[/u]    [u]PAIR[/u]       [u]Direction[/u]    [u]PRICE[/u]         [u]TP[/u]        [u]# of PIPS[/u]
30,925        EUR/GBP    Short        0.6632 avg.   0.6631    1
23,673        USD/HKD    Long         7.8110 avg.   7.8136    26
Code: 
Balance                        # of DAYS                         Open
Banked        Gain      ROI %   TRACKED     UPL         DD       Leverage
                       
[color=blue]$14,095.72    $650.49   +4.80   17[/color]          [color=red]-$378.21    -2.68%   4.7 :1[/color]
COMMENTARY: Welcome to "Golden Arches". This is a test. Please stay tuned for the trades to be illustrated in the "Golden Arch's" trading alerts thread after 02/13/07, or as soon as I get flat in these open trades.

Thursday 2/15/07 cst
Code: 
3:30am   GBP Retail Sales m/m                            0.2%    1.1%   
4:00am   CHF ZEW Expectations                           -10.8   
5:00am   EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks        
7:30am   USD Empire State Business Conditions Index      10.5    9.1   
7:30am   USD Import Price Index m/m                     -0.2%    1.1%   
7:30am   USD Unemployment Claims        
7:30am   CAD Manufacturing Shipments m/m                 0.6%    2.3%   
8:00am   USD TIC Report                                  60.0B   68.4B   
8:00am   USD St. Louis Fed President Poole Speaks        
8:15am   USD Industrial Production m/m                   0.0%    0.4%   
8:15am   USD Capacity Utilization Rate                   81.8%   81.8%   
9:00am   USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks        
11:00am  USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index        3.5     8.3   
12:00pm  USD NAHB Housing Market Index                   35      35   
5:50pm   JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m       -0.1%   -0.3%
 
rjb,

I again, need to ask for your help. You are very kind and I really, really appreciate your expertise in this method & MT4.

I need to be able to anchor the arch....I like the 299 day setting and I need to lock it at the time I enter...I can not have this rolling after I get in the trade. I need a user friendly field in the input tab that I can lock 299 days back..By entering in todays date it would start the bands 299 periods back...If there is not date and time in the field or an "x"...then they would roll...also I click through periodicity buttons and this would need to quickly adjust according to the period locked (if locked) minus 299 periods back...


Can this be done? and please think this through, we need those statistics also, as they are very important. both in the rolling and the anchored...The longer a trade is ...the longer the sample size of the statistics are...

I would use the "rolling" for entries and the "locked" for managment.

Michael B.

P.S. You can understand that if the arch's roll after I lock in a trade...the deviations and regression becomes less efficient...even the high and low bands lose historical significance.

See late edits
 
did you know that 68.8% of the time, the weekly EUR/GBP closed between the inner bands with a 337 pips breadth and the daily...weekly ...and monthly...are all short in the CR?...


while earning interest?
 
stupid question. im curious about why you keep mentioning interest. regardless of which direction the trade is on. i wasn't under the impression that interest is earnt on leveraged capital. how much interest are you seeing on some of your trades? im curious if this is something i should look into.
 
WJ,

I have published a spreadsheet on this...please see the link below in this post, titled "Interest Cow".

I urge you to review it (it is printable on one piece of paper)...The APR's are there for your comparison...taking the leveraged affect into consideration.

Considering that this method makes its money from price movement on 2-14 days holds utilizing usually under 10:1 leverage, I would say it is not significant. Some dealers pay interest on the cash balance too (5% APR)...My dealer does not deduct the cost of the trade...so not only do I get interest on the paper leveraged holding...I get double interest on the actual cash balance in my account.

At times, I may reference to Positive or Negative differentials and compare the targets (TP) per pip value to it...but let's not get lost in those...as this method is not really focusing on it. At times the only profit that is being banked is the daily injection of interest and if you look at the xls spreadsheet titled, "Golden Arch's" (I have posted a link in the following post) you can confirm, at the top in the headers, the dollar amounts of trading profits from interest earned/paid. (Currently you can see $105.57 in interest earned and $544.92 in trading..that is 5:1...trading to interest...so you can appreciate my sentiment, in what this method produces)

Talkin'ToTheHouseOfRepresentitivesSavant

P.S. I feel a "need" to reiterate what Wifey reminds me of often..."Do not jump over one hundred dollar bills, to pick up pennies".




Quote from walterjennings:

stupid question. im curious about why you keep mentioning interest. regardless of which direction the trade is on. i wasn't under the impression that interest is earnt on leveraged capital. how much interest are you seeing on some of your trades? im curious if this is something i should look into.
More...
 

Attachments

I participated in this thread posted below, concerning "stratagies of carry" and my opinions of some versions of them....

Please do not mis-understand me...The earning of triple digit APR's are substantial..but consider the range of price movement possible ...the directional aspect of price simply cannot be ignored ...and its all trading...there are not any valid directionaless approaches with minimal managment...my opinion only.


http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=85124
 
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