WHY DID GOLD TURN SOUTH THIS MORNING?
For the same reason it did so back on June 13th...
Gold, Silver, Platinum Forecasts – Gold Retreats Amid Broad Sell-Off in Precious Metals Market
- Thread starter mariaDevis
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For the same reason it did so back on June 13th...
Gold's daily disposition is slightly bullish, but for all intents and purposes, it might as well be neutral. The three-hour price flow might be neutral, but if so, it looks to be making an attempt to turn bullish. The six-hour flow is still bearish, but if the faster measure turns north, the six probably won't be far behind. In other words, gold looks to me more likely to climb higher over the next few hours as opposed to the opposite...
Gold did indeed climb higher over the next five hours or so, and then took a turn south. My main motivation in posting such forecasts publicly is that it spurs me with extra incentive to get things right, which I'd hoped would in turn, help me improve my trading.
As it turns out, I've ended up honing my charts to the point now where I see no room for improvement, at least not in terms of what I can do with my limited "skills." And since the markets are dynamic, with there not be much value to others in posting forecasts unless you're going to update them constantly, my original motivation has now disappeared.
Let me therefore suspend this little exercise and leave any further discussion concerning gold, silver, platinum and the precious metals market to anyone else whose interest happens to be captured by this thread..
I have absolutely no idea, and would do my utmost to ignore such thoughts if I did.
On the contrary, I approach trading using a system I developed myself, which I call Numerical Price Prediction (only because it attempts to mirror the methodology meteorologists use to forecast the weather—which is to say... Numerical Weather Prediction—though my goal is NOT to predict much of anything at all, but rather, to simply interpret what is happening in the moment!)
The system was designed (in part) based on cyclical and replicable patterns, and seeks to calculate the odds of price reaching designated values within a given time period relying on temporally-based measures that essentially take "guess work" out of the picture; resulting in its more-or-less reflecting the principles of flight dynamics, which use the laws of physics to explain how forces act on vessels to govern their performance, stability and control to ultimately determine their velocity and attitude with respect to time.
So, in the same way pilots know a Boeing 787 Dreamliner is lifting off the ground as it angles upward at two to three degrees per second with a maximum angle of 10 to 15 degrees, it was my goal to identify the parameters dictating whether gold is rising or falling from the perspective of a day, swing, or position trader.
The idea was that, similar to an aviator's knowing whether he or she is gaining or losing ground by monitoring key levels, including standard and local barometric pressure; ground and mean sea levels; or signals from vertical speed indicators, glide slopes and the like, I would identify which parameters dictate whether gold is rising or falling within the domain of all possible values.
This means that using NPP, I can (theoretically) buy and sell based on objective, proprietary, technical criteria that leads to an edge over other market participants who are relying more heavily on fundamental data—or at least, this is my belief.
Here is a simplified version of one of my forecast models, which illustrates how reliance on just a couple of key simple/basic (but painstakingly chosen/selected) measures has greatly enhanced my trading routine...
Short today
#GC EU session long
today Gold shortable
.... broad market sell-off?
When was this?
Both Gold and Silver have been moving sideways for weeks. And so far Silver has made a HH today.