Gold, Silver, Platinum Forecasts – Gold Retreats Amid Broad Sell-Off in Precious Metals Market

M

mariaDevis

Hi everyone,

I hope you’re all doing well. I wanted to open a discussion on the current state and future forecasts of precious metals, particularly gold, silver, and platinum, in light of the recent broad sell-off in the market.
 
I'd rank them:
#1-Gold
#2-Silver
#3-Platinum

Gold .... pullback to 2,083 area would be a buy IMO.
Silver .... pullback to 26.4 area would be a buy IMO.
Platinum .... no breakout yet so not an easy trade here.

***Long all via ETFs & call spreads.

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On Thursday, I started posting my market forecasts for natural gas, and that went rather well. So, now I'm thinking I'd like to do the same with respect to crude oil (in another thread) gold and silver. I see silver as having turned bullish on Friday at the point indicated below from an intraday/pseudo swing trading perspective (which is the style I employ) and it remains so at present.

XAGUSDM15.png


Gold, on the other hand, is a much more complicated beast. On might be able to milk some profit from entering positions at the top and bottom of the neutral zone in which it currently finds itself (see the image below) but overall, this precious metal is still bullish.

Then again, seeing as how it is up against what I regard as a significant resistance level, it very well could turn south before resuming a northbound trajectory. Nevertheless, it doesn't meet with "monster" resistance until it reaches Weekly Resistance Level II (not pictured), meaning it could also very well turn north, and historically, in those instances in which it breaks through Resistance Level I, it flies upward!

XAUUSDM5.png


So then for me, when it comes to trading gold, the name of the game is to be nimble, flexible and open minded; waiting for key levels or the right structure before taking action, and then altering my plans accordingly if and when the conditions, situation or circumstances change.

(P.S. That middle diagonal line can probably be redrawn so that it connects those lows it passes through, but that wasn't what I was looking at when I originally plotted it on the chart. Rather, I simply slapped it on the there somewhat subjectively based on the channels printed by my forecast model—not pictured.)

(P.S.S. Is it also possible to draw a diagonal trend line that connects the highs?)
 
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expiated said:
I see silver as having turned bullish on Friday at the point indicated below from an intraday/pseudo swing trading perspective (which is the style I employ) and it remains so at present.
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If silver drops below this level (29.21), I will be forced to conclude it has switched BACK to a bearish disposition and will therefore begin looking for a good entry level for a short position.

XAGUSDH1.png
 
expiated said:
Then again, seeing as how it is up against what I regard as a significant resistance level, it very well could turn south before resuming a northbound trajectory.
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The forecast model I've settled on for gold over the past couple of months relies on what it identifies as a daily, six-hour and three-hour price flow to interpret what is going on with the metal. In an ideal situation, all three measures would either be headed north or south. However, at the moment, the daily trend is neutral, the three-hour measure is bearish, and the six-hour flow is bullish.

I entered a short position figuring that the six-hour trajectory is lagging behind and will eventually join the three-hour action in heading south. But if I'm wrong, things could get very ugly for me in that it will mean the position is likely to eventually turn against me. Hopefully that won't be the case...

XAUUSDH1.png
 
expiated said:
I entered a short position figuring that the six-hour trajectory is lagging behind and will eventually join the three-hour action in heading south. But if I'm wrong, things could get very ugly for me in that it will mean the position is likely to eventually turn against me. Hopefully that won't be the case...
More...
The six-hour measure did indeed join it's faster cousin later on. However, I've now pocketed my gains from both gold AND silver in that I've detected a bullish reversal at the point indicated below with respect to the latter. (Gold has not officially registered a bona fide reversal yet, but I locked in my profit there as well anyway.)

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