Gold, Silver, and Indexes Using Price Action

[Gringo]

Price is moving downwards. There is some hesitation and demand isn't giving up without a fight. Usually there's a sharp drop that lets everyone know demands backing off for good and makes it easier to sit through when price back paddles.

While I was writing this the demand seems to be backing off a bit already. NQ is around 4402. Anyone rooting for NQ to close around 4380s? I would think it's quite possible if the rug is pulled from under the feet. Nonetheless, price demand and supply dynamic will dictate what transpires. Might take a day or two before giving up or could even turn around and head upwards. I can only control what I am going to do in response to how price behaves. Q is around 107.50.

Gringo

Edit1: 107.5 (NQ 4400) is holding well. Demand showed up. First sign to be noted that gives demand one check mark.

 

[Gringo]

Took 20% off. Might take more later if price firms up. I would expect some kind of a rebound around here as looking to the left one can see pockets of congestion around the 106 level. We're also in the thicket of the median. My expectation is for price to continue down after a few upward gyrations as the price couldn't make it to 109 this time around. This behavior did happen in the Dec to Jan trading range but demand showed up strongly and propelled price up in that instance.

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

I would say a lot of those who bought yesterday and today are trapped. I know that feeling of hoping, just hoping that price would get close to break even and then I would be out. Usually what ends up happening is that price gives the illusion of getting ready to go up and does go up. This raises the hopes that at last things are turning around. Then price stalls...meanders and causes frustration ... eventually it crashes again ... and taking with it our hopes. I have been there. And today when I am looking at price I can sense that anguish, and the relief that I am not one of them.

Gringo

 

[dbphoenix]

I would say a lot of those who bought yesterday and today are trapped. I know that feeling of hoping, just hoping that price would get close to break even and then I would be out. Usually what ends up happening is that price gives the illusion of getting ready to go up and does go up. This raises the hopes that at last things are turning around. Then price stalls...meanders and causes frustration ... eventually it crashes again ... and taking with it our hopes. I have been there. And today when I am looking at price I can sense that anguish, and the relief that I am not one of them.

Gringo

And the knowledge that now you can take advantage of them.

 

[Gringo]

And the knowledge that now you can take advantage of them.

That is the hope. I am having the same feeling today that I had a few years ago when I first saw price as a being continuous. I am not sure why today I am able to get a glimpse of what others might be feeling. It has not happened to me before. Maybe it's another light that's going off in the mind. More like seeing an accident from a distance. Usually it does take a bit of experience and practice to take advantage of these slight changes in our mindset. I hope I am able to do that in the coming days.

And I am 50% out.

Gringo

 

[dbphoenix]

That's pretty much a requirement for trading failures, which is why so few can do it. Until one eliminates fear, he'll be missing out on a lot of good trades.

 

[Gringo]

Using the 5 min we can see price is in a TR.

Is there a BO coming?
Is the BO going to have RET.
Is the price going to continue or stall if there's a BO.
Is the BO to the up or down side?
Price turning up from the mid has any significance?
What about the bigger picture if we zoom out?
Is this an expected move before another plunge?

Gringo

 

[dbphoenix]

Stay tuned, same Bat-time, same Bat-channel.

 

[Gringo]

Other half got stopped out. Back to waiting for a setup.

 

[Gringo]

What I learned yesterday is that I might have to shift decision making to the NQ instead of making if directly off of the Q. Yesterday was a good example. The overnight had shown the trend change and I had just left my stop of half the position at BE. The prudent thing to have done was to exit at the open. I'll have to fine tune the timing a bit more. Note that it's still working quite well but there's no harm in improving. The overnight business in NQ adds a great deal of value. The subtle signs I'll incorporate in my plan and try to keep in sync to surf better.

The below would have been a clear sign that the odds were shifting.

Gringo