Gold, Silver, and Indexes Using Price Action

[Gringo]

I wasn't watching as closely but did see the failure after a few minutes. My first reaction was the realization that it could spell serious trouble, especially considering the context of the large, unhindered drop we had experienced and this weak bounce.

In the end the risk was too great to ignore as we really don't know the future. The present was telling me the probability of up to be lower and scratch I did. Price did eventually come back and in hindsight the exit probably seems irrational, but in RT and not knowing the future, that was the decision I made. The line in the sand in the foresight thread was quite clearly visible to me. The failure was also around the indicated point of interest. So if up isn't working then it's either sideways or down. Strangely, I feel mildly happy about my loss.

As another trader had put it so eloquently: The objective is to have a profit or a small loss.

The objective was achieved.

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

Q currently. Close to the median.

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

Nothing to do for now. Just keeping an eye on movement.

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

Entry in the above chart was missed. I followed the plan but the bid wouldn't get hit. The speed was fast and I didn't want to chase too much, hoping some retracement might bring price down which never came to pass to the extent that I was prepared for. This time wasn't hesitation, just didn't realize how fast price can move when it wants to. Now I am waiting in case some kind of pullback in demand brings price down before I enter.

 

[Gringo]

Q's are in the middle of the TR. It's not too wise to mess with median of ranges. I await the price to reach an extreme.

Gringo

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Q's are in the middle of the TR. It's not too wise to mess with median of ranges. I await the price to reach an extreme.

Gringo

Why does your shaded rectangle not extend to the 99.52 bar?

 

[Gringo]

Why does your shaded rectangle not extend to the 99.52 bar?

So I don't have to see price bars through the blue. Rectangle could have ended around 99.39 or thereabouts and it would still have been fine. Vicinity is the key, not razor sharp exact level. For precision lower bar intervals are used when price gets close to the extreme to see how the demand and supply are faring around the important level.

 

[Gringo]

I have been looking at the price behavior and had this deja vu feeling. For an interesting comparison I have done some labeling. Isn't it eerie? Just a reminder that my trading decisions aren't made based on the previous trading range or behavior. Decisions are made based on current behavior around important levels.

One difference to note is that the previous TR had price action E, F, G mainly above the median whereas current action is at and slightly above it. This would indicate buyers being not as eager to chase price this time around.

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

Q's and currently what I am looking at. The complexity has increased a bit due to TR and other TC also becoming apparent. I have added the downward sloping smaller TC and also a horizontal dotted line to show where the previous consolidation might come into play.

I'll be keeping an eye on 107.75 and 108.75 levels. As price approaches other levels we'll have to see how it behaves there. The ideal situation is for price to be around TC or TR extremes and not in between somewhere. Above 107.75 there is a possibility of greater turbulence. There's also the apex of the old hinge and all kinds of magical creatures in between.

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

I was spending some time with the trading ranges from 2003 to 2007 bull market. The ranges were there but weren't as easy as they have been recently. There were times when the price turned from the median and there were times when the price started basing. There were also times when one had to rely on SLA to get a sense of what was going on.

2003 to 2015 give ample ranges for anyone to get a sense of how the Scribbler Method works. Considering the document already lays out what to look for an what to do when one find it, the trader only has to get a few unknown examples and see bar by bar how it played out and what if any slight additional rules might have kept things within tolerance levels. The current bull market moves have been larger and faster. If one got in close to an extreme the moves have been large enough to heavily compensate the rider of the waves.

Db would have a better sense of how things were back then in real time but my sense is that trading due to larger movements is easier now than was a decade back. I am generally talking about larger moves and not intra-day.

The weekly and daily for the year 2003.

Gringo