gold: showdown time

2

2cents

if TB's good enough tonite (tokyo time...), guaranteed gold breaks $600, and perhaps closes below as well, so it makes the week-end IHT headlines and we get a big sell-off next week...
 
who is TB ? ( tokyo bank ) ??

I think the HF or MM or dealers dumped gold
overnight ...took out some stops below $605 in spot
and then
had to cover as silver was very strong
and oil firmed up
 
US Trade Balance... but the figure wasn't good enough, better than expected but worse than last month... outcome still unclear on the FX front...

Metals may fare better next week then, until the BoJ removes some additional liquidity and starts making noises again... they will as soon the Nikkei stabilizes... just a respite ;-)
 
Gold will rally back up to $650-ish . Fed is raising rates one more time then stop for a bit.

At least that's what I see from the bond market.
 
wow ... someone decided to "puke" out their position

post comex close ... drove August down to $605

now August is back to where it settled on comex in the

$612 area

:eek:
 
The next leg is coming very soon, I believe. maybe a dip to 580 then off we go, back to 700.

Silver on the other hand and base metals, I don't know...
 
XAU touched below 602, XAG closed on a multi-week low... as long as oil & commodities represent a threat in terms of 2nd round effects type inflation expectations - and they do until their LTMAs get back to pre-bubble price level or just about - the CBs will raise rates... they don't have a choice... in any case BoJ is taking away global liquidity (free money) every other day and things are going to get worse on all markets at every 20bp increase going fwd, no matter how slow the pace... read up folks if you can't see whats happening on the charts since dec, this is not the 1st yen carry global unwinding episode in recent times... or, is this time different? ;-)
 
so whats your position on gold say by Dec? By August the Fed has paused (well we hope) wil gold reach its 700 plus position again or has the bubble well and truly burst?
 
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