gold: showdown time
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I think the $580 / $550 price band is a reasonable expectation. Unlike other metal markets, which I think are/were running on momentum , gold has a higher % of fundamental buyers. In the meantime the rising USD will lessen the % of fundamental buyers and the on going liquidity mop up by BOJ will pretty much wipe out the momentum players.
in my opinion the lines in the sand have been drawn late this week
$11 in july silver + $605 in August Gold Futures
problem of course is every rally has been sold by those unwinding their old longs ... or bailing out of new ones
yet the rallies have been fast and furious ... for those nimble enough and not looking for long term holds
$11 in july silver + $605 in August Gold Futures
problem of course is every rally has been sold by those unwinding their old longs ... or bailing out of new ones
yet the rallies have been fast and furious ... for those nimble enough and not looking for long term holds
Have not followed gold closely but it looks like a parabolic blowoff. A bit of a lukewarm attempt to go up again by the "Johnny come lately's" and then gold goes to rest for another twenty years.
Maria
With everyone and their mother predicting $580 as the support, I'm not sure that's the best level.
IMHO a better support point is 540-550.
Would love to see it go to sleep for a few years. Don't think we will be that lucky, but G8 meeting undoubtedly will focus on global financial stability. If a US & emerging market bear equity market is what is required to cool down the global economy and restore faith in currencies, so be it. I don't think the CB's will have any objection, particularly now that speculation on hards is sending quite a bit more wealth towards 3rd world economies - more than I think is desired.
Central planners will take these considerations into play and try to control these factors as best they can. The big question on everyone's mind is - can they be controlled?
I, for one, have absolutely no idea.
IMHO a better support point is 540-550.
Would love to see it go to sleep for a few years. Don't think we will be that lucky, but G8 meeting undoubtedly will focus on global financial stability. If a US & emerging market bear equity market is what is required to cool down the global economy and restore faith in currencies, so be it. I don't think the CB's will have any objection, particularly now that speculation on hards is sending quite a bit more wealth towards 3rd world economies - more than I think is desired.
Central planners will take these considerations into play and try to control these factors as best they can. The big question on everyone's mind is - can they be controlled?
I, for one, have absolutely no idea.
Well, $580 is the nearest support other than $600. It does NOT mean we should or are going to buy when it hits $580.
and they shouldn't, however there is no reason it shld come to that really... even if equity mkts suffer a bit while commodities move back to the bottom of the value chain where they belong, and while the industry / sectoral portfolio rebalancing action picks up steam, medium-term with rates remaining in a moderate range equities shld be doing ok to ok+ imo... but i'm an optimist...
I read this morning that
gold stocks are now pricing in a $550 to $570 per ounce target
well then .. if in the next 24 hours gold cannot rally more than $4
from late friday levels then it surely will test late last week lows
and perhaps $600 area just below that
the latest COT report showed alot of small specs bailing out of longs in both gold and silver ... thats good news in a sense that the weak hands are getting out ...
gold stocks are now pricing in a $550 to $570 per ounce target
well then .. if in the next 24 hours gold cannot rally more than $4
from late friday levels then it surely will test late last week lows
and perhaps $600 area just below that
the latest COT report showed alot of small specs bailing out of longs in both gold and silver ... thats good news in a sense that the weak hands are getting out ...
the only puke ... was to the upside ...
however seeing this headline makes me a little cautious to the upside this week
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adBzIdSVEjvo&refer=home
execerpted from Bloomberg
-Eighty-three percent of the 30 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News from Sydney to Chicago on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1 advised buying gold, which rose 2.4 percent last week to $650.60 an ounce in New York. The percentage predicting a gain was the highest since the survey began in April 2004. Three respondents said to sell. Two were neutral. -
however seeing this headline makes me a little cautious to the upside this week
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adBzIdSVEjvo&refer=home
execerpted from Bloomberg
-Eighty-three percent of the 30 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News from Sydney to Chicago on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1 advised buying gold, which rose 2.4 percent last week to $650.60 an ounce in New York. The percentage predicting a gain was the highest since the survey began in April 2004. Three respondents said to sell. Two were neutral. -