Its possible that the non-BTC cryptos is where the 'value' due that underperformance. OTOH, its possible that they will just continue to lag while Bitcoin marches on, for a long-time. OTOH, I have held alt coins during BTC dips and they tend to be high beta plays. BTC would drop 5-10% and they would drop the double. So its a difficult market to figure out, you got to be flexible and not have dogmatic views
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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Its possible that the non-BTC cryptos is where the 'value' due that underperformance. OTOH, its possible that they will just continue to lag while Bitcoin marches on, for a long-time. OTOH, I have held alt coins during BTC dips and they tend to be high beta plays. BTC would drop 5-10% and they would drop the double. So its a difficult market to figure out, you got to be flexible and not have dogmatic views
Yes - agree on the flexibility. When BTC "crashed" in recent days, I thought it was a top that would last for at least a few weeks, if not longer. However in the past 24 hours it reached a new high at Bitfinex and some other exchanges. (I'm obviously ignoring the crazy high above 19,000 last week at Coinbase / GDAX).
Ethereum offered a better risk/reward than Bitcoin at a ratio of 36, with Bitcoin below $8,500 less than a month ago, and Ethereum seeming to have support at $400. Now with the ratio below 32, ETH could still outperform, but there is far more risk.
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Are you long any of the cryptos? How are you trading them?Yes - agree on the flexibility. When BTC "crashed" in recent days, I thought it was a top that would last for at least a few weeks, if not longer. However in the past 24 hours it reached a new high at Bitfinex and some other exchanges. (I'm obviously ignoring the crazy high above 19,000 last week at Coinbase / GDAX).
Ethereum offered a better risk/reward than Bitcoin at a ratio of 36, with Bitcoin below $8,500 less than a month ago, and Ethereum seeming to have support at $400. Now with the ratio below 32, ETH could still outperform, but there is far more risk.
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SNL joked about `putting all my money on bitcoin`
LTC $100 just a few days ago, thats the trick. If you time this exponential market exit wrong, you miss out a gain that exists even AFTER the crash. Thats why I`m back at nibbling on cryptos, even though market risks are large
The action in the last 48 hours or so reminds me a little of the May-June period.
Back then Bitcoin did well, but Ethereum did even better.
In the last couple of days, Litecoin and Ethereum have done very well and even Ripple looks like it is joining the party.
Yes, I think non-BTC cryptos are the play right now. You take crash risks but at least there is a lot of reward. XRP is probably going to $1, its already up almost 100% in like 1 day. Its VERY hard for BTC to do that. With BTC you risk 50-80% for like 10-20% weekly rewards, with non-BTC cryptos, you risk 60-90% for 100-300% rewards, thats pretty goodThe action in the last 48 hours or so reminds me a little of the May-June period.
Back then Bitcoin did well, but Ethereum did even better.
In the last couple of days, Litecoin and Ethereum have done very well and even Ripple looks like it is joining the party.
Yes, I think non-BTC cryptos are the play right now. You take crash risks but at least there is a lot of reward. XRP is probably going to $1, its already up almost 100% in like 1 day. Its VERY hard for BTC to do that. With BTC you risk 50-80% for like 10-20% weekly rewards, with non-BTC cryptos, you risk 60-90% for 100-300% rewards, thats pretty good
Yes with the benefit of hindsight, the BTC/ETH ratio was a strong sell above 36 a few days ago. Now below 25.
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Today I deployed an Alt Coin investing strategy I came up with. I longed more than 40 coins in small amounts (putting in 0.5% of my networth total) and I plan to hold them for years, wont even be checking their quotes much. I cant share the list or my criteria because that is proprietary. The idea is that everybody doesn't understand this blockchain technology thing completely, there will be a lot of surprises, all it takes for one of these coins to be the next big thing and the entire project will have paid for itself.
If you invested $300 in BTC early on, you would now be a millionarie . I dont expect these results but I'm sure I can catch some ten baggers, maybe a fifty or a hundreded bagger. To me this makes a lot more sense as a convexity strategy than being long BTC at $17K and hoping for $100K while SNL has kids talking about 'putting all of their money on bitcoin'. Frankly, it just seems ridiculous to be long BTC vs owning the alt coins (also, Bitcoin cash just seems a lot better than BTC, but thats for another post). They have underperformed a lot, thats where the value is. LTC might have lit the fire on the non-BTC space, there is a lot of reversal of that BTC outperformance going on right now. My strategy has the long-term convexity exposure plus this short-term timing advantage after the LTC triple
If you invested $300 in BTC early on, you would now be a millionarie . I dont expect these results but I'm sure I can catch some ten baggers, maybe a fifty or a hundreded bagger. To me this makes a lot more sense as a convexity strategy than being long BTC at $17K and hoping for $100K while SNL has kids talking about 'putting all of their money on bitcoin'. Frankly, it just seems ridiculous to be long BTC vs owning the alt coins (also, Bitcoin cash just seems a lot better than BTC, but thats for another post). They have underperformed a lot, thats where the value is. LTC might have lit the fire on the non-BTC space, there is a lot of reversal of that BTC outperformance going on right now. My strategy has the long-term convexity exposure plus this short-term timing advantage after the LTC triple
The nice thing about this alt coin strategy is that if they triple or quadruple from here (the entire sector), without any substantial catalyst, I can just pocket 50% of my money and leave the rest. There are 2 ways to win, on fundamentals and if they go into a bubble as the cyclical bounce takes place. There is so much optionality, its like a perpertual call option on a new technology. and speculative manias Plus I will add coins/tokens as I discover them or they come out
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