Global Macro Trading Journal

Daal said:
The nice thing about this alt coin strategy is that if they triple or quadruple from here (the entire sector), without any substantial catalyst, I can just pocket 50% of my money and leave the rest. There are 2 ways to win, on fundamentals and if they go into a bubble as the cyclical bounce takes place. There is so much optionality, its like a perpertual call option on a new technology. and speculative manias Plus I will add coins/tokens as I discover them or they come out
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Glancing over a bunch of alt coins charts and polioniex ticker table it appears to me that the alt coin sector has doubled since my post. If it doubles again I will have to consider taking some gains and leaving the rest on. Thats how hot this market has been and why I dont talk about anything else. When you can make 100% in a week, who gives a shit about anything else?
 
Looks like the top is in for these things, I shorted a small amount of BTC and decreased some of my speculative alt plays (not the long-term ones). I will reasses if this market catches a bid
 
I liquidated my coins and im playing the short side now, mostly on GBTC. But that is more of a day/swing trade. I will rebuy everything higher if I need to in case a miracle happens and they come back
 
Only things I'm keeping is the alt coins from my strategy. Small positions in like 50 of them, I'm keeping that for years. But I think I will make enough from the shorts to compensate me for their likely short-term loss
 
Right now I got a small short on BTC on kraken and a small GBTC short with long BTC as hedge (same $ amount). My assumption is that this is a dead cryptokittie bounce (the move from 10k to 14k), but hey, I'm not too attached to this view. If BTC goes through 15K/16K and holds there (trades there for more than 1 day) then the bubble is back on and I will be looking around for coins to buy. But at this point I'm on full defense with a bias towards the short side. I wont go heavy on BTC shorts because it trades 24/7 and I dont want to stress myself over holidays. Its supposed to be hard to short bubbles anyway.

What I do go heavy on is GBTC, long and short but that is more intraday, it was a good money marker to me this week but its mostly a daytrade, swingtrade which is beyond the scope of this journal
 
This GBTC spread trade strikes me as a very good trade. The premium went twice to 100%, both times it imploded. I dont think it will be going there any longer, people have been burned. Right now its around 55%, maybe the most it goes to is 70-75%, but it can easily drop back down to 20% or even lower. I plan to put more of this trade on monday, if the spread doesnt move too much. Its a way to play the bursting of the bubble with more limited risk than other plays
 
If BTC comes back, I will re-buy a 1% position total in XRP, BCH and ETH (and cover my BTC shorts), in the hopes for a final hurrah where this market goes into a big tear. I choose them not because of any special knowledge about them, they are just the ones I'm most familiar with, and made some good profits on, so they will be the easiest to hold. No matter what happens (it goes up or down), I feel like I can profit from it
 
Daal said:
This GBTC spread trade strikes me as a very good trade. The premium went twice to 100%, both times it imploded. I dont think it will be going there any longer, people have been burned. Right now its around 55%, maybe the most it goes to is 70-75%, but it can easily drop back down to 20% or even lower. I plan to put more of this trade on monday, if the spread doesnt move too much. Its a way to play the bursting of the bubble with more limited risk than other plays
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The borrow rate is outright moronic - I just looked :)
 
sle said:
The borrow rate is outright moronic - I just looked :)
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I have a lot of experience with high borrow rates, they are not that relevant if you got timing. When I get in these things, I'm either going to be right in the next week or 2 or I will be out. Sometimes the same day. You would have to be a nut to hold for a year
The best shorters I know (guys who pulls $5M a year) also think the same way
 
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It is starting to look like the coins will survive a while longer, I rebought some of the alt coins I mentioned and plan to cover my BTC short soon. I will be small and will just try to ride a final wave higher
 
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