Global Macro Trading Journal

Actually, he bought 1.7M total with most being right before the close

High River Limited Partnership
11/03/2016
366,480.00
54.70

Icahn Partners LP
11/03/2016
860,076.00
54.70

Icahn Partners Master Fund LP
11/03/2016
605,846.00
54.70

big.chart


I guess he was too busy yesterday
 
I originally got the idea for longing Greek stocks from Steve Sjuggerud
Here is him pitching the trade
http://www.dailywealth.com/preview/3393?print=1

My thesis is as little more broader than that though but I like the optionality of that market. They are very sensitive to the rest of Europe due turism, plus they are very sensitive to the ECB as well. I'm in with a 1.5% position now
 
BRK earnings out, new buyback level now is ~$132 for the B shares. Stock is at around $143. 8% downside and who knows the upside, prob 30-50%
Cheap and much better risk reward relative to the S&P500
 
Not unthinkable that BRKB could trade bellow the buyback price for a while, maybe even a month or two but its A LOT easier for the S&P to drop 8% and keep dropping than for BRKB to do that. Every newspaper out there will be talking about how Buffett is buying back its own shares, a lot of buying power will be down there (both from him and his followers)
 
A temptation that I have is to load up 100% in cheap equities like that and take a year or two off from active trading. In the one hand I view this bull market as somewhat shaky as central banks have compressed risk premiums all around but that seems unsustainable and likely to end up in a nasty bear market at some point (and therefore, the likely return of equities is going to be limited), on the other hand I see some safe opportunities to make 8-12% a year. Which is not supposed to happen when the index is so rich and people are looking for returns everywhere, fueled by low rates and inflation is burning the cash in their pockets

Am I being tricked into mistake?
 
The theory behind going 100% in stocks when going in a sabbatical is that because I'm taking less risk in the active trading side, I can take more risk in the investing side
But on the other hand, as an active trader I'm not exposed to have a big drawdown when people pull back from drinking the CB kool aid. I'm flat most nights. As an investor, if the S&P gets hammered, I'm likely too as well

But on the other, other hand, BRKB seems limited in its downside...
 
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It also just seems very wrong to load up in equities after a 7 year bull run which put the CAPE ratio over 25, and was fueled by a apparently flawled thesis of TINA (there is no alternative)
But on the other hand, what do you do when you find something you really believe will compound 10%? You let your worries chicken you out?
An alternative is to consider an aggressive but not 100% allocation. Perhaps 65-75% in equities and the rest in good hedges like cash and gold. And perhaps short some long-term OTM calls on SPY to generate extra income and cushion against a drop
 
Interesting chart on the buyback threshold

CwdQ0flW8AAnscX.jpg:large


The risk is that book value goes down, like it did in 2008. But it would take a pretty nasty bear market given that most of the stuff brk owns are private companies not subject to mark to market accounting
 
Deuteronomy_24_7 said:
How would you prefer he buy/sell stocks, if not on the close?
More...
The stock traded 10M on the day after earnings, it traded 4M on the day he bought, and this was expected given that earnings attract so many investors. If he wanted to get in he would have bought on the day after earnings. He waited for the next day because it wasnt just about trying to get in, it was about creating a perception for the shorts and making it easier to move the stock. There was no need to blast that close like that, if he was so desperate to buy, he would have done it the day before
 
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