They guided $8b in asset sales, if they close this, then pretty much they will out do that in one shot. And they will got a lot of non-core to sell. I bet they wont even need to sell them anymore. The balance sheet will be very strong now. At any point in the future, if there is a hope trend, then VRX is above $30-$35 again and shorts are hurting. And if this sale closes, there is a LONG time to his hope trend to happen (it will YEARS before they run out of cash). Thats why putting back the day of the financial problems is so bad to the shorts. That, assuming there are financial problems at all, which might not be the case
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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
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If Trump wins, no doubt, risk assets will be shredded. But I actually think it will be a good buying opportunity. Bill Clinton has been shown to be a liar, cheater, corrupt (with the now info on Mark Richie) and who knows what else. Yet, his presidency was ok. Trump will be advised by all kinds of people who will put some sense into his policies. Half of the stuff he is talking about, he wont do, the other half he will probably just do a little just so he doesnt get called a liar. But at the end of the day, I bet he will be all bark and no bite
But even if I'm wrong, the Fed is likely to offset whatever problems he brings by offering a more shallow path for interest rates. And we know how much the markets love low interest rates
So I think this whole election thing is a lot of drama about nothing
But even if I'm wrong, the Fed is likely to offset whatever problems he brings by offering a more shallow path for interest rates. And we know how much the markets love low interest rates
So I think this whole election thing is a lot of drama about nothing
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In Brazil in 2003, Lula was elected saying all kinds of crazy shit (like 'lets default on the external debt'), markets dived. Yet, when he got into office, his first term was actually decent. He had some good advisors who threw some sense into his policies. On his second term he went down a worse route and ended up planting the seeds for a fiscal crisis but it took him years to have any balls to do crazier things
Just 1 sample but I do think there is an element of sense that politicians get when they finally get there, people complain all the time how politicians lie in the elections, well, thats why. They say what people want to hear and then do other things when they get there
He graduated in economics and will be advised by all kinds of folks who know markets. He might not be the best candidate out there but I doubt his presidency will be this disaster that people seem to think
An uncertainty extreme is to be faded imo
Just 1 sample but I do think there is an element of sense that politicians get when they finally get there, people complain all the time how politicians lie in the elections, well, thats why. They say what people want to hear and then do other things when they get there
He graduated in economics and will be advised by all kinds of folks who know markets. He might not be the best candidate out there but I doubt his presidency will be this disaster that people seem to think
An uncertainty extreme is to be faded imo
If you think about it, the most dangerous types of populists, are the ones that made a living off government. The ones who openly defend socialism or socialist policies, whose background doesnt involve being involved with markets and market discipline. That's the Bernie Sanders types (and Lula)
Trump is the exact opposite of that. Even though he talks like a populist, his entire career was being involved with markets/investing. His economic advisors include smart people like Andy Beal and Steve Roth. I bet this treasury secretary could very well be some who graduated in economics/finance from the University of Chicago
Trump is the exact opposite of that. Even though he talks like a populist, his entire career was being involved with markets/investing. His economic advisors include smart people like Andy Beal and Steve Roth. I bet this treasury secretary could very well be some who graduated in economics/finance from the University of Chicago
So my theory for the Trump scare out is this:
-A lot of other presidents (like Bill Clinton, Bush 2 maybe Nixon) were probably just as crazy/unstable as Trump but they kept their mouths shut a lot of the time. Because Trump is a populist and politically incorrect, he will say things people are not used to hear and look a lot nuttier compared to past presidents and candidates. But he probalby isnt, its just that the other ones were thinking crazy shit but not saying it
-Of all the populist candidates, the ones you got to worry the least are the ones that were involved in markets their whole lives. Especially if they graduated in economics and whose advisors are big time investors, billionaries that also are deeply involved with markets/finance.
The guy already backed out of so many opinions, you can pretty much tell what is saying is not what he will do.
Most likely scenario is that Hillary wins and markets pop, but if Trump wins, it will be a nice buying opportunity for risk assets as they collapse IMO. As soon as he announces his Treasury name, markets would realise that they are just being stupid
-A lot of other presidents (like Bill Clinton, Bush 2 maybe Nixon) were probably just as crazy/unstable as Trump but they kept their mouths shut a lot of the time. Because Trump is a populist and politically incorrect, he will say things people are not used to hear and look a lot nuttier compared to past presidents and candidates. But he probalby isnt, its just that the other ones were thinking crazy shit but not saying it
-Of all the populist candidates, the ones you got to worry the least are the ones that were involved in markets their whole lives. Especially if they graduated in economics and whose advisors are big time investors, billionaries that also are deeply involved with markets/finance.
The guy already backed out of so many opinions, you can pretty much tell what is saying is not what he will do.
Most likely scenario is that Hillary wins and markets pop, but if Trump wins, it will be a nice buying opportunity for risk assets as they collapse IMO. As soon as he announces his Treasury name, markets would realise that they are just being stupid
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And even if that's all wrong, Fed will be taking hikes off the table and that will support risk assets
If Trump tried to put a hawk as Chairman, I dont think that will be a big deal either because Yellen's term will only be due in early 2018, so the first year will have that cushion
Plus I recall from Greenspan's book that the way the Fed works is that if the Chairman loses a vote to the rest of the FOMC, he is pressured to resign by them. I dont think folks like Dudley, Fisher and others will have a problem dissenting from a random hawk that takes over
If Trump tried to put a hawk as Chairman, I dont think that will be a big deal either because Yellen's term will only be due in early 2018, so the first year will have that cushion
Plus I recall from Greenspan's book that the way the Fed works is that if the Chairman loses a vote to the rest of the FOMC, he is pressured to resign by them. I dont think folks like Dudley, Fisher and others will have a problem dissenting from a random hawk that takes over