Global Macro Trading Journal

Gold and gold stocks seem to be back to being a good hedge. Thats why I didnt want to liquidate with the crowd into that 200MA test. I will bail out of gold when it decisively loses that kind of level, until then, no reason to sell
 
As far as the Trump thing goes, seems that everyone decided to hedge at the same time. The odds from betting markets doesnt seem to have changed much today

Hillary Daily
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Trump
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The change came out after the FBI news, today these things barely moved. But it appears that everyone decided to hedge out at the same time and the liquidity couldnt take it
 
That HLF stock is in a interesting point right now. I think the stock has little to no upside all the way to the first earnings release after the FTC changes (Q2 release on Q3 2017 I believe), no long will keep buying at higher levels without the confirmation of that release. But longs are taking 100% of the downside until then. So, its a pretty bad long right now(I suspect this was part of the reason why Icahn wanted out)

Yet I believe the stock will be a buy a month or so before that release (and a long into the release). The reason is because if the US business starts to tank, there is still a long way for the total collapse. Global regulators need to start to act and this will take time, maybe even years. 80% of the revenues come from that. But if the US business holds up (and Ackman is wrong), the lets squeeze Ackman trade will start and he is likely (in my view) to get out of the stock. Judging by the Icahn block trade shop ($10 or so bellow the market price), Ackman will have to pay up $15-$20 to get out. So either the stock tanks a bit (say to $40-$45) or pops a lot ($100, is not out of the question). So I will be hedging into that event. Either with HLF calls or with stock. I will do it 1 month or 2 before it because I suspect the smart money will see that and they will be buying into the release
 
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I might even be forced to be long before that earnings antecipation ramp. I bet a lot of people will be visiting clubs and trying to measure the volumes of their business to notice some kind of drop or stabilization before earnings. So the ramp might start sooner
 
The thing is, because longs are in a covered call position right now (taking 100% of the downside but having little to no upside), they hate their position. But they will be in a good spot for that earnings (in terms of risk-reward). The question, when will they realize that
 
Of course, I'm assuming, they wont be clobbered by bad news way before that earnings report. If that happens, then they asked for it. Thats why I cant long it too early to hedge, better to wait and react to something in the chart that suggests accumulation
 
VRX in talks to sell Salix for $10b. I was able to add when the news came out. So it looks like the 'desperate' 'bad investor' Ackman who was just 'talking his book' and said the phone was ringing off the hook was right after all
 
I mean, they will sell almost double the market cap (from the open) in one shot and build a very strong balance sheet to absorb debt, legal costs and pretty much anything that will come out. A real short thesis starts at a much higher level, maybe $35-$40. here, only idiots are short
 
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