Global Macro Trading Journal

[jj90]

Looks like this year is return of the macro. While I'm in the camp of believing that commodity countries and currencies are an incredible buy currently, I have been wrong on this a few times already and don't wish to take a 20-30% DD on that. Thinking I'll start with half size and see.

I'd much rather be long SPY levered or even in BRK.B and assume the correlation risk. I can't see where US equities would be off 20-30% in this environment in < 1 year duration. That said, there's probably a few opportunities to enter, I'm not getting the feeling that the Jan low was it like Oct '14.

 

[Jakobsberg]

Hard to observe who is buying and selling but thought this chart and quote was interesting - 36% of SP500 reported last week by market cap. Results were not great but perhaps more importantly they can resume buying their own stock again which they have not been able to do since year end.....





"Companies can engage in buybacks after reports are issued, meaning that significant corporate buying may resume after this week and next."

 

[Daal]

Interesting case for gold
https://pensionpartners.com/is-gold-the-new-high-yield/

a place to park money in a world of negative bond rates. the war against cash is also something that will help gold. I have 5-6% of my assets in gold as part of FX diversification but I'm looking to increase that gradually

 

[Daal]

As a long as the price action is constructive

 

[Daal]

Gold also seem to be benefitting from the increasing skepticism that central banks are going to save the day everytime

 

[Daal]

For me its specially important to own some gold because of state of my home country (brazil), if there is ever a time it might pay to have some currency insurance, thats now

 

[m22au]

Interesting case for gold
https://pensionpartners.com/is-gold-the-new-high-yield/

a place to park money in a world of negative bond rates. the war against cash is also something that will help gold. I have 5-6% of my assets in gold as part of FX diversification but I'm looking to increase that gradually

Yes, I've read more than one research report that shows the correlation between gold and real interest rates. Obviously gold has not done well against the USD since 2011, but if you look at its performance in JPY (to use just one example), it's done much better.

Gold in USD peaked in 2011
http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?...2&ly=2013&y=daily&q=volume&f=svg&a=lin&m=0&x=

But in JPY it made a new high in 2013
http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?...2&ly=2013&y=daily&q=volume&f=svg&a=lin&m=0&x=

and it's now at about 136,000 JPY, less than 10% below its 2011 peak

.

 

[Daal]

sold some SPY calls today. I wish I had started yesterday

 

[Daal]

Also sized down on BRKB puts. This market is not looking good at all

 

[Daal]

I wish I could get myself to buy some bonds but they are so overbought that it just feels very dangerous to buy them up here