Global Macro Trading Journal

I'm guessing you are long vol?

At this point I'm going to try to swing short a decent rally on S&P500 with a good sized position. ES tanked 50 points very quick so its dangerous to chase it down but if it puts a good pop I'm going to try to play the short side again like in September
 
Its tough because there is some indication that the market has a positive edge
http://quantifiableedges.com/long-term-implications-of-last-weeks-breadth-thrust/

So is today a flush out of the people who loaded up long friday and couldn't take the pain of the big gap down and contant selling or is it just a back and forth of an bottom that formed at the 1800 level on the SPX?

I feels like there is more selling to be done, the tough thing is that if you don't get in a good price, as soon as there is a rally you might just cover and think you are wrong. At least thats a problem I face when I'm short indices and stocks in general
 
In the overall scheme of things, its bearish that central banks are not being able to prop these markets. This is a very dangerous health sign for the market. We haven't seen this type of action in a long-time
 
I don't have a lot of confidence, though, that the decline has to happen now. Maybe it happens 1 month from now, maybe 3 months. Thats the hard part, if you are short in decent size for that long, its VERY hard not to find a reason to close the short during that period
 
I went flat on BRKB (except for the puts). PSH has China devaluation bets and I got SPY short with a small alocation to bonds. I think im resonable protected against a continued market puking
 
Daal said:
I'm guessing you are long vol?

At this point I'm going to try to swing short a decent rally on S&P500 with a good sized position. ES tanked 50 points very quick so its dangerous to chase it down but if it puts a good pop I'm going to try to play the short side again like in September
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I'm long index vol. I'm short other vols.

It's 19 vol (which historically is not cheap), but can easily be carried each day.
 
I didn't want to fight SPY so I covered when I started to lose money. Oil is likely to continue and the dollar index turning might fuel the market (might boost some revenues, etc). Draghi will speak tomorrow too. I swear to god, if I took profits 100% of the time I'm was up 1-2 dollars on SPY, I'd be a rich man
 
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