Global Macro Trading Journal

Looking at the August, September tops and Dec lows, is looks like there will be a lot of resistance in the 1980-2000 area of the SPX. I will probably concentrate my call selling there

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That said, it looks like stocks are in a short-squeeze now (kinda like on Oct). The bears and the underweight longs are scrambling to buy anything they can. So it might be prudent to wait for a red day in the daily (or a news catalyst) before starting to put bearish positions
 
I will try to do a better job next time if markets do play out in the way antecipated. I was underhedged at the top and didn't load up enough at the lows. Frankly, after the ECB said they were opening the spigots and the Fed effectively said no hikes for now and stocks keep falling, it felt like another round of selling was needed, thats why I lightned up on BRKB. I tried to daytrading long at the open on SPY but didn't had the staying power (which I had plenty of in the ECB day). I took a few small losses, gave up and decided to focus on other stocks
 
I think the key is for me not get frustrated with adverse price action. Because of the lack of liquidity, you can be "wrong" for days but still have the right positions. We might see some of that to the upside now. If people really decide to buy for real, the surprise could be how high things go
 
But I wish I had persisted a bit more today on SPY. The good old setup "oversold stock market + central bank support" is alive and well
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nd-the-bounce-as-s-p-500-rebounds-take-longer
Markets are not bouncing back on the V shapped rips that we were used to

Here is a theory: The lack of V shapped bottoms (specially when CBs give dovish signals like the ECB and the Fed) might signal a extra degree of skepticism on the part big money players that stocks are a great investments (at these valuations) in this world where central bank policy is starting to diverge and where they could be making mistakes. If this skepticism continues any significant rally is likely to be met with more sellers than usual. Idiocy buying is likely to be limited
 
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newwurldmn said:
Daal, yesterday's action could easily just have been month end rebalancing and buying. You could see a reversal on Monday.
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I'm sure this was a significant factor. How are you positioning yourself in this enviroment?
 
Daal said:
I'm sure this was a significant factor. How are you positioning yourself in this enviroment?
More...

I'm long some single stock deltas with low PE and stable earnings. Short index delta against that. Short some single stock vol, long some index vol.

But running about 50% of the notional I would normally run.
 
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