Global Macro Trading Journal

EUR tanking on no deal in Greek politics. How come I got rebutted for suggesting Grexit was EUR negative?How come this isn't painfully obvious to anyone trading in the real world?
 
Quote from Daal:

EUR tanking on no deal in Greek politics. How come I got rebutted for suggesting Grexit was EUR negative?How come this isn't painfully obvious to anyone trading in the real world?
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Sensitive much? "Trading in the real world?" I guess everyone else on this thread is paper trading in their Schwab account.

It's a still a hung jury on what an actual "exit" will do.

Right now we've got a Schrodinger's Cat type situation, where Greece is neither in nor out, and nobody knows what the fallout of full follow-through will look like. Maybe the safety mechanisms hold and the periphery verdict remains stable; maybe everything goes to hell; or maybe Greece balks last minute, too early to tell.

Also, aren't you more of a long-term guy? A downside range breakout that's only a week old seems pretty thin gruel for saying "I called it"...
 
Quote from darkhorse:

Sensitive much? "Trading in the real world?" I guess everyone else on this thread is paper trading in their Schwab account.

It's a still a hung jury on what an actual "exit" will do.

Right now we've got a Schrodinger's Cat type situation, where Greece is neither in nor out, and nobody knows what the fallout of full follow-through will look like. Maybe the safety mechanisms hold and the periphery verdict remains stable; maybe everything goes to hell; or maybe Greece balks last minute, too early to tell.

Also, aren't you more of a long-term guy? A downside range breakout that's only a week old seems pretty thin gruel for saying "I called it"...
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You have an great track record for arguing in favor of hopeless viewpoints. I'm glad you kept it intact
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

I'm curious what factors make you think it is technically strong, and at a decent entry point? For me it looks like a huge 13 handle break down from 1.33 to 1.19, decisively breaking the prior 6 month trading range. And now it has just retraced 50% of that move - typically the first 50% retracement after the initial breakout leg of a new trend, is a great time to re-enter the trend, not to fade it. Finally, you have strong resistance at 1.28, the old trading range lows. Whereas the nearest support is at 1.19, and is only weak support.

The only bull factor I see is that the macro news is bearish for risk assets, and this may give some bid to the Yen. However, I note that despite the bad news of the last 1-2 weeks, the Yen has not rallied at all in that period. This is a rather Yen-bearish divergence.

Overall I'd say the Yen is a tentative short (although it may see another 2-3 handles rally), and definitely not a good long.
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It's been going up steadily for 4+ years. No major trendlines or support levels have been broken (using the futures at daily timeframe), there is no bear trend here. A one-month selloff doesn't negate half a decade of rally - in fact I'm more inclined to see it as a buying opportunity, though as indicated I'd be more comfortable if I had a fundamental thesis.

One could buy 6J here at 1.25 with a stop at 1.22, while if the bull trend continues we can see 1.35+, maybe even 1.4+ this year.
 
Quote from Daal:

You have an great track record for arguing in favor of hopeless viewpoints. I'm glad you kept it intact
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"Your... your brain has the shell on it."

- Tommy Boy
 
Quote from Specterx:

It's been going up steadily for 4+ years. No major trendlines or support levels have been broken (using the futures at daily timeframe), there is no bear trend here. A one-month selloff doesn't negate half a decade of rally - in fact I'm more inclined to see it as a buying opportunity, though as indicated I'd be more comfortable if I had a fundamental thesis.

One could buy 6J here at 1.25 with a stop at 1.22, while if the bull trend continues we can see 1.35+, maybe even 1.4+ this year.
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Using daily charts, the support level at the low of a 6 month trading range (1.28-1.33) was broken decisively earlier this year, the market went 9 handles lower. That is a large move on a daily bars trading timeframe (i.e. weeks to months timeframe), if you were long Yen due to the secular bull market then you would have dropped a little over 10% in 6 weeks, hardly chump change. If you shorted the breakout you made many times your risk.

As a more general point, trading timeframes are measured in weeks and months, occasionally a year or two, definitely not 4 years+. You are not Warren Buffett and this isn't an investing forum - in fact you yourself cited 'technicals' and I am merely pointing out what they are...a clear medium-term breakout and new downtrend, which has now retraced about half the move in the last month or so.

Your last sentence is strange - yes, you could do that, but so what? You could also short with a stop at 1.28 and if the downtrend continues we can see 1.19, 1.10, or parity in a year. Neither of these statements by themselves tell us anything about which one is more likely to happen or which is the better trade.
 
Quote from Daal:

Can someone translate this for me?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...e-meeting-yields-growth-offer-for-greece.html

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande said they would consider measures to spur economic growth in Greece as long as voters there committed to the austerity demanded to stay in the euro."
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Vote in New Democracy or PASOK (or some coalition of the 2) in June and Brussels will throw Athens a bone.
 
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