Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
It would be fitting for the market to wait until bears have no fur left -- to mangle an old Reminiscences line -- before finally busting wide open.
p.s. Not to beat a dead horse (no username jokes please), but your comment nicely illustrates why price is such a handy thing to pay attention to.
Even for the morst ursine-minded, the major indices were not saying "short" for most of 2012 -- and were in fact saying "long" (w/ vice versa for gold, silver etc) til the last couple weeks or so.
Does anyone have an opinion on JPYUSD?
It's been in a bull run for years, technically looks quite strong, at a decent entry point and also pleasantly uncorrelated to the risk on/off, equities bull/bear theme that underlies many of the positions I'm in or looking at. On the other hand I don't have a comfortable explanation for the past strength nor why I'd expect it to continue, other than to say that money supply growth in Japan has been quite subdued relative to the US.
It's been in a bull run for years, technically looks quite strong, at a decent entry point and also pleasantly uncorrelated to the risk on/off, equities bull/bear theme that underlies many of the positions I'm in or looking at. On the other hand I don't have a comfortable explanation for the past strength nor why I'd expect it to continue, other than to say that money supply growth in Japan has been quite subdued relative to the US.
I'm curious what factors make you think it is technically strong, and at a decent entry point? For me it looks like a huge 13 handle break down from 1.33 to 1.19, decisively breaking the prior 6 month trading range. And now it has just retraced 50% of that move - typically the first 50% retracement after the initial breakout leg of a new trend, is a great time to re-enter the trend, not to fade it. Finally, you have strong resistance at 1.28, the old trading range lows. Whereas the nearest support is at 1.19, and is only weak support.
The only bull factor I see is that the macro news is bearish for risk assets, and this may give some bid to the Yen. However, I note that despite the bad news of the last 1-2 weeks, the Yen has not rallied at all in that period. This is a rather Yen-bearish divergence.
Overall I'd say the Yen is a tentative short (although it may see another 2-3 handles rally), and definitely not a good long.
Quote from ralph00:
Covered my euro shorts (not kidding, $1.2825).
You should post your reasoning behind trade decisions, rather than just announce them.
Seems that the EU has started using the verbal bazookas sooner than expected with Junker 'nonsense' comments
They only selling point they have in the Greek negotiations they have so far is 'less austerity', I'm not sure thats enough to convince them. The SYRIZA party demands stuff like not having to pay debt for 3 years among other things
In any event I'm decreasing my shorts here
They only selling point they have in the Greek negotiations they have so far is 'less austerity', I'm not sure thats enough to convince them. The SYRIZA party demands stuff like not having to pay debt for 3 years among other things
In any event I'm decreasing my shorts here
The reasoning - as I thought the quote bit ahead of my trade - is Daal has top-ticked (actually bottom-ticked) the euro about half a dozen times or more over the past few months. The euro falls nearly 500 pips in a straight line over May's first two weeks, and then he announces a major addition to his euro short? Please. That's not just ringing a bell, that's banging me over the head w/a cast-iron griddle.
FWIW, I think the euro needs to be at parity with the dollar. I'm just no longer short for now (I remain short CHF).