Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Debaser82:

Fwiw...

I think the anual rebalancing deals with the survivorship bias no...
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Depends on how it's done, I guess... Devil's in the details, as usual.

Another question would be how they define "performance". I presume we're talking about some sort of a total return, rather than just some measure of index performance. Otherwise, it's gonna be apples and oranges.
 
Thinking about A New Earth and what Tolle calls 'the ego' I thought how knowledge and practice to not fall for it can create a market edge for a individual trader

My cousin works in the Fixed Income and FX desk at HSBC Brazil. He majored in engineering and even studied engineering in France for a while. He is essentially a macro trader there yet the guy never read Market Wizards(even though I lent my copy to him), I suggested he read Drobny books but he said he didn't need it. I told him that I read NYT, WSJ and bunch of other news sources everyday, he also said he didn't do that

To me he is a clear example of someone who let his ego grow too large(Due having a high IQ and being a top student everywhere he went to). As a result he doesn't achieve he full potential due lack of information and probably has issues with admitting bad trades

The ego is so deceptive that is probably a widespread issue which creates an opportunity for those that are aware of it and are able to not be trapped by it. This enables people with less resources or academic brilliance to be able to get performances that the more resourceful and brilliant guys aren't able to(or at least match it). To me, this partially answers the question of 'how can you expect to beat these guys who have more money than you, better research and better financing'
By avoiding silly egoic mistakes you are already ahead of the competition
 
I haven't read "Market Wizards", nor any of Drobny's books. But, then again, I ain't a macro trader and never aspired to be. I think a vast majority of macro traders are not worth the chairs they're sat in.
 
Quote from Daal:

Thinking about A New Earth and what Tolle calls 'the ego' I thought how knowledge and practice to not fall for it can create a market edge for a individual trader

My cousin works in the Fixed Income and FX desk at HSBC Brazil. He majored in engineering and even studied engineering in France for a while. He is essentially a macro trader there yet the guy never read Market Wizards(even though I lent my copy to him), I suggested he read Drobny books but he said he didn't need it. I told him that I read NYT, WSJ and bunch of other news sources everyday, he also said he didn't do that

To me he is a clear example of someone who let his ego grow too large(Due having a high IQ and being a top student everywhere he went to). As a result he doesn't achieve he full potential due lack of information and probably has issues with admitting bad trades

The ego is so deceptive that is probably a widespread issue which creates an opportunity for those that are aware of it and are able to not be trapped by it. This enables people with less resources or academic brilliance to be able to get performances that the more resourceful and brilliant guys aren't able to(or at least match it). To me, this partially answers the question of 'how can you expect to beat these guys who have more money than you, better research and better financing'
By avoiding silly egoic mistakes you are already ahead of the competition
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Good observation.

There are a lot of Ivy League MBA/PhD investment bankers/traders/sales guys who haven't read Mkt Wizards and will simply laugh at the ability of an uneducated/uncouth retail guy to produce returns. They won't believe there are people like Lescon - a firefighter - whose Sharpe in my opinion would be >3. (Even though he is constraint by his liquidity size). And these ibanks traders (most of them anyways) won't in their lifetime be able to match Richard Dennis (just taking an example here) record of converting 400$ into 200million.

Anyways, this ego was responsible for guys making million dollar bonuses and then getting their 20 million house in foreclosure - they just couldn't foresee a world where their skills/or their positions might not be protected and overleveraged and overextended themselves by a huge margin.

Guys like Martin are a rare breed in the world of investment banks, who have a very balanced head.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

I haven't read "Market Wizards", nor any of Drobny's books. But, then again, I ain't a macro trader and never aspired to be. I think a vast majority of macro traders are not worth the chairs they're sat in.
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Would you deny that reading about other traders experiences, successes, failures can help someone identify similar situations, profit, avoid disasters or repeat mistakes?
 
Exited Amazon at the price I bought it. Nazz has been on a tear, yet AMZN can't get out of its own way. I'm back of the opinion this is another NFLX.:D

Introduction of Windows 8 has really opened my eyes to the issue AMZN faces. Between Apple, Android, and MSFT, the online shopping experience is moving from web-based to OS-based. Apple led the way, then Android, now MSFT. AMZN could get squeezed. Trading at 120X earnings, I'll let others see whether Bezos & Co. can adapt.
 
Quote from gmst:

Good observation.

There are a lot of Ivy League MBA/PhD investment bankers/traders/sales guys who haven't read Mkt Wizards and will simply laugh at the ability of an uneducated/uncouth retail guy to produce returns.
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Who cares what (pick a demographic) they think? Does it somehow negate the reality?
 
Quote from Daal:
Would you deny that reading about other traders experiences, successes, failures can help someone identify similar situations, profit, avoid disasters or repeat mistakes?
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I can't and don't deny this, not at all... It's just that, IMHO, the usefulness of reading about other people's performance is marginal at best. Personally, I can find a lot of better uses for my time in the mkt. Specifically, I'd rather spend this time doing some analysis and trying to find good trades. Again, I stress that this is only my personal opinion and I am not a macro guy at all.
Quote from gmst:
Guys like Martin are a rare breed in the world of investment banks, who have a very balanced head.
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Please... I have said it before and I'd like to mention it again. I am not an IBanker and I have never been an IBanker.
Quote from Butterball:
The author's argument is hard to follow. Because Private Equity investors are buying out small cap companies the space is uninteresting? I don't get it. That's ridiculous.
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I don't think that's his point at all. Generally, Hempton is one of the "really good ones" out there, IMHO, and well worth listening to.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Exited Amazon at the price I bought it. Nazz has been on a tear, yet AMZN can't get out of its own way. I'm back of the opinion this is another NFLX.:D

Introduction of Windows 8 has really opened my eyes to the issue AMZN faces. Between Apple, Android, and MSFT, the online shopping experience is moving from web-based to OS-based. Apple led the way, then Android, now MSFT. AMZN could get squeezed. Trading at 120X earnings, I'll let others see whether Bezos & Co. can adapt.
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NPR ran a story on a "leading online retailer" and the working conditions at their warehouses and how it related to profitability. I love AMZN as a consumer, but it's a massive house of cards.
 
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