Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Butterball:

Really is that so? What data are you basing that on or is that purely your personal opinion?

approach-chart-dividends.jpg
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I would like to know how this was calculated because a stock that does not pay a dividend(maybe does some buybacks) has tax advantages over a dividend payer. If the chart reinvest dividends pre-tax it could account for the outperformance given the nature of compound returns
 
I have a bit less than 10% of my networth on BRKB right now, I'm looking to increase it if the stock declines again. Seems that Buffett is saying out loud how undervalued the stock is
 
Quote from Daal:

I have a bit less than 10% of my networth on BRKB right now, I'm looking to increase it if the stock declines again. Seems that Buffett is saying out loud how undervalued the stock is
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Maybe he should start paying a dividend :D

Seriously though, my problem with Buffet is always that he seems too inflexible. He's a 'stock guy' and sure isn't going to change his mind at 85. No position can sometimes be the best position, and over timescales of 10-20 years other investments can certainly outperform stocks - as have gold and bonds since 2000. Anyone who does not at least acknowledge these possibilities is suspect.
 
Hmmm, Ireland to hold referendum on new EU fiscal treaty. The euro dives. So fascism = euro positive; Democracy = euro negative. Got it.
 
Got a big kick out of this tweet.

https://twitter.com/#!/zerohedge/status/174596316763136003

I'm trying to figure out a scenario where tomorrow's LTRO number is bearish for the euro, and I can't. The only tradable thing I can think of is a big move higher on the back of a big LTRO take-up might provide a nice spot to get back in short.
 
I'm shocked that people are shocked the Fed isn't opening the spigots. I thought maybe the game was over once the Fed started publish Fed funds forecasts but apparently there is plenty of room for people to have unrealistic expectations

Haven't they seen the latest inflation numbers?All the alternative measures other than the CPI are either at cycle highs or close to them. The only place where there is no inflation is on Paul Krugman's blog

I do think eventually the Fed will come back but I will have to be right about the recession/slowdown
 
Quote from Daal:

I'm shocked that people are shocked the Fed isn't opening the spigots. I thought maybe the game was over once the Fed started publish Fed funds forecasts but apparently there is plenty of room for people to have unrealistic expectations

Haven't they seen the latest inflation numbers?All the alternative measures other than the CPI are either at cycle highs or close to them. The only place where there is no inflation is on Paul Krugman's blog

I do think eventually the Fed will come back but I will have to be right about the recession/slowdown
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What's really interesting is that the GDP deflator only rose by 0.9% in 4Q11, annualized SA. The three preceding quarters it was between 2.5-2.6%. This is responsible for the GDP figure coming in at 3% rather than 1.4% or so.

I have to say the macro picture seems really confused here. Recession in Europe, but somehow the USA is charging ahead? Strong growth, good jobs numbers coming in etc. but bond yields are on the floor and now a big drop in the GDP deflator. And for that matter there's now a divergence between the deflator and the CPI.

Something has to give but which way?
 
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