Global Macro Trading Journal

I've noticed that when the EUR goes down against the USD it tends to go up by almost the same amount agains the SEK and NOK. Which makes me think there is some kind of low risk trade here. I'm currently short against the SEK and USD(covered on the NOK). The P&L is flat most days but I have a free ride in case the EUR implodes(its likely to go down against both) maybe I should increase the trade because it seems a low risk way to be shorting EURs betting on total collapse
 
Quote from Daal:

I've noticed that when the EUR goes down against the USD it tends to go up by almost the same amount agains the SEK and NOK. Which makes me think there is some kind of low risk trade here. I'm currently short against the SEK and USD(covered on the NOK). The P&L is flat most days but I have a free ride in case the EUR implodes(its likely to go down against both) maybe I should increase the trade because it seems a low risk way to be shorting EURs betting on total collapse
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How are you positioned if there is a huge rally?

Not saying there will be one or they could trigger one but will they reallly let the likes of France burst past 5% and do nothing cause the main focus has to remain on inflation?
 
Does Buffett own a stake in LUK? He just told CNBC he's not interested in JEF.

LUK has been knife-catching JEF all the way down, so I'm curious as to why Buffett would publicly pull the rug out from under them.
 
Quote from Debaser82:

How are you positioned if there is a huge rally?

Not saying there will be one or they could trigger one but will they reallly let the likes of France burst past 5% and do nothing cause the main focus has to remain on inflation?
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I'm probably net long on risk assets right now
 
Covered AMZN puts near the open. Don't want to say how many bags. :p

I personally tried out the Fire this weekend and found it to be a huge, stinking, piece of crap - which probably means they'll sell about 9 zillion of them to folks who need to read People magazine, buy the latest Harry Potter, and watch Dancing with the Stars on an inferior piece of equipment from any spot on the planet.
 
Quote from ralph00:
What in god's name are you talking about? It's not a binary option - either default and get paid off or no default and lose your bet. Only an idiot (or a banker) would hold the CDS hoping to get paid off on a default. If CDS trade at 1 and go to 5, or 10, or 20, or 100, you cover the bet and move on to something else. Japan isn't going to default - doesn't mean their CDS can't go up 100 fold or more in value.
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It's not a binary option. However, as a rule, I only buy/sell things that I am happy holding to maturity/settlement and whose fundamental value I have a view on, regardless of my view on what happens before we get there. According to your logic, everyone should have been happy to invest w/Madoff, 'cause, before you got wiped out, you would have collected some nice returns and been able to get out. And yes, Japan CDS can go up 100x in value, but I still believe it's a sh1t worthless product and won't be involved. That's just my view and doesn't constitute advice of any sort.
From what I know of the guys who made out on CDS on MBS during the last cycle (or in Ackman's case CDS on MBIA), they covered their bets long before any actual default occurred.
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Yep, sure, but that's apples and oranges. Firstly, the fact that someone takes profit on the trade before maturity doesn't mean that was the original intent. Secondly, corp CDS is different to sov CDS in a number of key ways.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

It's not a binary option. However, as a rule, I only buy/sell things that I am happy holding to maturity/settlement and whose fundamental value I have a view on, regardless of my view on what happens before we get there. According to your logic, everyone should have been happy to invest w/Madoff, 'cause, before you got wiped out, you would have collected some nice returns and been able to get out. And yes, Japan CDS can go up 100x in value, but I still believe it's a sh1t worthless product and won't be involved. That's just my view and doesn't constitute advice of any sort.
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You do realize you've completely lost it now.
 
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