Global Macro Trading Journal

It saddens me to say this but I think Belgium could make global headlines and fast.

We had 3 global banks going into the crisis. Fortis, Dexia and KBC.

A 2 trillion USD monster at the peak.

BNP took over Fortis in 08.

Dexia, well, everyone knows about that.

The third one, KBC is on the brink and if previous cases were any guidance I give it a couple of weeks max before they will have to step in and step in they will.

Belgium 10 year is at 5% now. Any news of nationalising another hundreds of billions banking balance sheet and we are toast.



Help us Mario. :D
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

Sov CDS is not worth owning even at 1bp per annum. Japan, with most of its bonds held domestically, is easily capable of engineering a "voluntary restructuring" w/o triggering sov CDS. In that case, the real cost of owning this contract is the PV of all the litigation expenses, rather than 1bp per annum (judging by how long the Argentina sov CDS lawsuit spent in NY courts, those fees are going to be hefty). However, if I understand what you mean, i.e. would you buy these types of blowup options if they were cheap as chips and well-defined? Hell, yeah. Problem is that there are no "cheap" or "free" Japan blowup options out there, unless, of course, you assume a blowup occurs very very soon.
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What in god's name are you talking about? It's not a binary option - either default and get paid off or no default and lose your bet. Only an idiot (or a banker) would hold the CDS hoping to get paid off on a default. If CDS trade at 1 and go to 5, or 10, or 20, or 100, you cover the bet and move on to something else. Japan isn't going to default - doesn't mean their CDS can't go up 100 fold or more in value.

From what I know of the guys who made out on CDS on MBS during the last cycle (or in Ackman's case CDS on MBIA), they covered their bets long before any actual default occurred.
 
It's funny Southern Europeaners with degrees have been applying like crazy over here these last months, years. They view Western Europe as far more stable and the pay is a lot higher.

Today however the Canadian ambassy had an open day and there were 5 times more people trying to get a Canadian entrance as previous years. 3000 people at the door and only 800 were allowed to aply!

I guess one mans safe harbour is another mans sinking ship.
 
Quote from Debaser82:

It saddens me to say this but I think Belgium could make global headlines and fast.

We had 3 global banks going into the crisis. Fortis, Dexia and KBC.

A 2 trillion USD monster at the peak.

BNP took over Fortis in 08.

Dexia, well, everyone knows about that.

The third one, KBC is on the brink and if previous cases were any guidance I give it a couple of weeks max before they will have to step in and step in they will.

Belgium 10 year is at 5% now. Any news of nationalising another hundreds of billions banking balance sheet and we are toast.

Help us Mario. :D
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Great call Debaser.

KBC -7% already this morning, compared with other dodgy European banks that are "only" down by 1% or 2%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=KBC.BR
 
Quote from Butterball:

Commerzbank at new 5y lows. How ironic would it be if Schauble had to nationalize this pig?
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The thing I love about CBK as a short is that if Germany decides to bailout the PIIGS, then (after a short-term pop), this would be a long-term negative for CBK.

CBK has its issues already, and it wouldn't rally as much as BMPS or other Italian banks if Germany decided to help out its neighbors.
 
Quote from m22au:

The thing I love about CBK as a short is that if Germany decides to bailout the PIIGS, then (after a short-term pop), this would be a long-term negative for CBK.

CBK has its issues already, and it wouldn't rally as much as BMPS or other Italian banks if Germany decided to help out its neighbors.
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Which european banks are you short currently?
 
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