Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

You think Greece will act like Ireland? Why won't the new government just default a la Argentina. Also, if the new government tries to do austerity in line with German wishes, how do you know they will last? It's quite possible the public riot even more and the new government collapses within a short time, and that the public keep rioting until massive default occurs and austerity is abandoned.
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Yes, all of this is possible. Whether it's probable is a different story. Greece has already had massive riots, even deaths over this. Could they escalate? I suppose. That's a question for another day. For now, the resignation of G-pap just means another political career is over for the cause of this new brand of European-fascism

I'm sure G-pap will just join the guys from Ireland, Portugal, Spain (coming soon), France (coming soon), Germany (coming soon) laughing it up in some cushy EU or World Bank job in some lovely paid-for apartment in some lovely city. They did their job holding the game together before turning things over to the "opposition" whose job will be to continue to hold it together.
 
Quote from gmst:

i closed short euro before the decision, re-entering euro short now.
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Me too. But only partially. Now I will do the trade without stops, I make all kinds of bad decisions when I have a stop on. I will just size this in a conservative fashion
 
Quote from ralph00:

Why convenient for me. I have no position in the euro. I'm short AUD, a position that will not benefit if the EU stabilizes.

Everybody consistently underestimates the will to keep this thing going. European politicians have good lives. EU MEPs have the cushiest jobs imaginable at salaries you cannot believe. There are massive bureaucracies built up around all of this. You think these guys want to give this up?

Yes, a popular revolt in Greece might turn things around, but a Samaras-led gov't will not.
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Its convenient for you because you seem to have mental problems. You take pleasure in seeing me and others here have losses
 
Quote from Daal:

Its convenient for you because you seem to have mental problems. You take pleasure in seeing me and others here have losses
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Not at all. I thought shorting the euro as it was plummeting earlier this week a bad idea. You've got to short this baby on the rips, not the dips. Instead of getting pissed, ask yourself why you were so hot to short the euro on Tuesday at $1.37, but had no interest in doing it on Friday at $1.42?

We're trying to make better decisions here. Going all-in on a euro short because some silly gov't action is about to lead to collapse of the currency has been a silly move for more than a year. Nothing wrong with pointing that out.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Yes, all of this is possible. Whether it's probable is a different story.
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No - Greece is 95%+ likely to default; Ireland is 95%+ likely to stay solvent. Only way the Greeks avoid it is if the ECB prints money to buy all their bonds, or Germany etc decide to pay off half their debt, neither of which are likely.

If Greece defaults, which they almost certainly will, then there will be bank runs and bank closures, which will cause riots and probably the collapse of whichever government is in charge. Just like in Argentina, the people will keep causing shit until a politician steps up and says FU to the EU and the foreign creditors. That will then trigger EU-wide banking wobbles.

The question is not whether Greece will default, but what their almost inevitable default will means for market prices from here.
 
Yes, its different from Ireland because in Greece haircuts have been already been accepted that will occur by everyone. Its a matter of whether they will haircut in a way that keeps their economy in hell for another decade to the benefit of EU banks or they will do in a way that is painful right now but in the long-run will benefit their own people

That said there is a chance the game goes on for longer. I was reading some statements by the opposition and it seems that they don't know what they want, they don't want default but also don't want austerity, so its uncertain where they will go
 
Anyone have an opinion on CAD right now?

I've been short EUR/CAD since the deal announced in Europe a few days ago - a position that is flat at the moment. The trade assumes CAD benefit from a risk-on type mentality, coupled with fundamental issues in Europe. Some decent USD news hasn't helped much, either. Perhaps it is best to wait out this Greek referendum business? Anyone care to pick this apart?
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

No - Greece is 95%+ likely to default; Ireland is 95%+ likely to stay solvent. Only way the Greeks avoid it is if the ECB prints money to buy all their bonds, or Germany etc decide to pay off half their debt, neither of which are likely.

If Greece defaults, which they almost certainly will, then there will be bank runs and bank closures, which will cause riots and probably the collapse of whichever government is in charge. Just like in Argentina, the people will keep causing shit until a politician steps up and says FU to the EU and the foreign creditors. That will then trigger EU-wide banking wobbles.

The question is not whether Greece will default, but what their almost inevitable default will means for market prices from here.
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Of course, they're going to default. It's enshrined in bailout from last week. That's not the question.

You're positing some sort of revolution-led disorderly withdrawal from the euro. While I would personally like to see the people rise up and smite euro-fascism (as I've often made clear), I don't think it's a reason to go massively short the euro after it has just plummeted 500 pips in 48 hours.
 
I covered the EURUSD short(still on the SEK NOK). I'm going to wait a bit to try to forecast what this interim government is likely to do, there is so much noise in terms of headlines that it seems no one knows what is going on(except ralph00 of course)
 
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