Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Not my words, that was from Samaras, who leads the opposition party and will probably be the next PM. Like Ireland, a new government will tweak around the edges, but the fascism is going nowhere. Germany has taken over Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Italy, and Spain without firing a shot.
That doesn't make any sense. In almost every single trade, there is the possibility that the market may stay irrational for a bit longer. After all, the market by definition has to have run irrational for quite a while already, in order for the price to be inefficient enough for it to be worth betting against - and if it's been irrational for a while, it can be irrational a bit longer.
Since you can reduce the potential drawdown as much as you want via position sizing, fear of a large irrational move against you should simply mean you trader smaller, not that you stand on the sidelines. If there was no irrationality then there would be no trade.
You think Greece will act like Ireland? Why won't the new government just default a la Argentina. Also, if the new government tries to do austerity in line with German wishes, how do you know they will last? It's quite possible the public riot even more and the new government collapses within a short time, and that the public keep rioting until massive default occurs and austerity is abandoned.
Anyone remember the applause for the ECB for their hikes just a few months ago?
Why convenient for me. I have no position in the euro. I'm short AUD, a position that will not benefit if the EU stabilizes.
Everybody consistently underestimates the will to keep this thing going. European politicians have good lives. EU MEPs have the cushiest jobs imaginable at salaries you cannot believe. There are massive bureaucracies built up around all of this. You think these guys want to give this up?
Yes, a popular revolt in Greece might turn things around, but a Samaras-led gov't will not.