Global Macro Trading Journal

ralph00 · Nov 2, 2011

Quote from Daal:

lol, like it a takes a lot of talent to play the carry trade during 2 periods where the Fed steepened the curve

This period includes 2 major tightening cycles and a financial panic like we've never seen. These guys managed to hold on through all of these tough periods and preserve capital, allowing them to score once things loosened up. It takes talent to do it, and talent (mine) to recognize these guys were stud traders back in the late 90s, buy, click off reinvest divvies, and hold on. Find me another dividend play w/a record even close. You're vaunted Tilson pick, BRK.A, would be hugging the ground with those other indices.

FWIW, that chart is only from 2000. Take it back to 1997, when the IPO came and I bought in, and the outperformance is about twice as mind-boggling. We're talking life-changing returns here. Laugh away.

Daal · Nov 2, 2011

Quote from ralph00:

This period includes 2 major tightening cycles and a financial panic like we've never seen. These guys managed to hold on through all of these tough periods and preserve capital, allowing them to score once things loosened up. It takes talent to do it, and talent (mine) to recognize these guys were stud traders back in the late 90s, buy, click off reinvest divvies, and hold on. Find me another dividend play w/a record even close. You're vaunted Tilson pick, BRK.A, would be hugging the ground with those other indices.

FWIW, that chart is only from 2000. Take it back to 1997, when the IPO came and I bought in, and the outperformance is about twice as mind-boggling. We're talking life-changing returns here. Laugh away.

How exactly do they preserve capital in a period where their carry is negative?Because I'm not exactly excited to pay salaries(bonuses) plus all corporate expenses to have my money sitting on cash. And if they do play carry even in bad periods, then they are just carry monkeys

You would have made more money using Fed futures

Daal · Nov 2, 2011

PM Papa had the guts to stick to his position
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/referendum-day-decide-greeks-future-124

I really would like to have a Greek contact now. I want to know much people will behave over the coming days if there is a threat of a pull out of the EUR(even if small)

I hope they do get out, then I can buy Greek stocks and possibly make a ton of money in 2012

ralph00 · Nov 2, 2011

Quote from Daal:

How exactly do they preserve capital in a period where their carry is negative?Because I'm not exactly excited to pay salaries(bonuses) plus all corporate expenses to have my money sitting on cash. And if they do play carry even in bad periods, then they are just carry monkeys

You would have made more money using Fed futures

Woulda, coulda, shoulda ... the fact is that these guys have compounded investors' money at about 20% annually for the 14 years they've been public. Find me someone else who has come close.

Maybe you should just move on to another subject now. You're really starting to sound like an ass.

jj90 · Nov 2, 2011

Quote from ralph00:

Woulda, coulda, shoulda ... the fact is that these guys have compounded investors' money at about 20% annually for the 14 years they've been public. Find me someone else who has come close.

Maybe you should just move on to another subject now. You're really starting to sound like an ass.

Kinda apples to oranges but Renaissance has compounded at what 30-40% since inception. Just a comparison. SAC hasn't done too bad either to my knowledge.

BTW not defending Daal here, but as I alluded to in a previous post, you would get less attitude if you dropped yours. I'll rehash what I said about hubris in that previous post...

ralph00 · Nov 2, 2011

Quote from jj90:

Kinda apples to oranges but Renaissance has compounded at what 30-40% since inception. Just a comparison. SAC hasn't done too bad either to my knowledge.

BTW not defending Daal here, but as I alluded to in a previous post, you would get less attitude if you dropped yours. I'll rehash what I said about hubris in that previous post...

More like apples to tennis rackets. I'm obviously talking about the average punter.

And I unloaded all of my NLY several weeks ago at far higher prices. Didn't like the politics of home refis and possibly the SEC taking away its leverage, along with the Twist flattening the yield curve.

I started buying again last week, but I doubt I'll ever have as large of a position as I once had. Too big a chunk of my portfolio.

I don't mind getting attitude, in fact I like it. It makes for good brain exercise and ultimately a decent trade idea that might pop out. Ignorance, on the other hand, i can do without.

gmst · Nov 2, 2011

Quote from Daal:

"EU, IMF Aid to Greece on Hold Until After Referendum"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45135887

Am I the only one who think this Referendum equals game over. I don't think there will be a lot of people who will want to run a russian roulette with their deposits on their banks on whether they will be EURs one day and worthless paper the next. So I would expect a bank run to happen before the votes

Furthermore its questionable if even they will have the liquidity to survive to the vote. I question if the vote will ever happen

I still hold 20% of my euro short entered at 1.39 with stop at 1.39, have booked profits on other portion (as my time horizon is shorter compared to you guys here). Shorted euro at the break of 1.37 again today with stop at 1.375.

With the Greece aid on hold headline, I am shocked to see euro not moving down by 2 big figures even when so many hours have passed since the headline. An instant reaction of 50 pips was definitely called for, but it didnt even move at the time news hit the wires. Not sure why the movement has been so tepid.

Being short euro is a 100% correlated bet with greek situation/europe news flow etc. In my opinion, being long gold is a less correlated way to play bank runs in Greece and Greece moving out of euro. Though it is debatable how much gold greeks are going to buy. Still I think short euro along with long gold is a better trade here compared to pure short euro position.

EDIT: Everything has become correlated but dividing capital between ES short, euro short, aud short and a smaller long gold position, is a better proposition than a pure euro short. Planning to cover AUD short significantly lower, and will keep booking profits on others on the way down. (Hoping they do go down

)

gmst · Nov 3, 2011

Quote from gmst:

EDIT: Everything has become correlated but dividing capital between ES short, euro short, aud short and a smaller long gold position, is a better proposition than a pure euro short. Planning to cover AUD short significantly lower, and will keep booking profits on others on the way down. (Hoping they do go down )

Shorting silver here as long gold short silver trade again looks attractive.

Daal · Nov 3, 2011

So the Greek government is collapsing and the referendum might collapse too. Why are markets taking that as good news?Are they not aware that the opposition(who is likely to take over) has voted against austerity in almost every chance they had?

In my mind the new government is going full Argentina in Merkel's ass

gmst · Nov 3, 2011

Quote from Daal:

So the Greek government is collapsing and the referendum might collapse too. Why are markets taking that as good news?Are they not aware that the opposition(who is likely to take over) has voted against austerity in almost every chance they had?

In my mind the new government is going full Argentina in Merkel's ass

Yes totally incomprehendible to me. I closed the shorts and went long euro at 1.375, but have reversed to short at 1.38.