Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
I'm probably going to regret in a few days that I didn't bet the farm on this one. The political will of Greek politicians for more austerity looks exhausted and a default has already been accepted that will occur. Its matter of which type of default they will go for, one that is on Greece's interests or in the other countries interests. Looks like they are leaning towards the former rather than the latter
Short euro trade with stop at 1.39 looks good, the only suggestion I have is if price moves very quickly in your favor, lets say it goes to 1.34/1.33 by this weekend, bring your stop to breakeven and trail it. The reason being after greece defaults (assuming no bank failure happens), euro might rally on the assumption that clean is done.
Most likely scenario however is that once greece defaults, spain/italy/portugal spreads balloon and euro falls 5-6 big figures in one day. My 2 cents
What are your thoughts on my theory?My read on the situation is that once the default has been accepted(by the modest 21% but now by the significant 50% haircut)the Greek politicians started to think 'wait a minute, wasn't a default going to be the end of the world?now that it has been accepted why should we sacrifice more of our economy in order to save you guys from suffering, enough of austerity'
My poker read on the situation is that the PM calling for a referendum was essentially a 'I give up sign', the referendum by it self is irrelevant. For him to call this rather unusual procedure(last time was 1974) means something unusual must be happening backstage and this means the politicians might be changing their course
Thats my bet anyway. I hope the bazookas of headlines that will come out by Merkel and Sarkozi or even the Greek PM trying to contain the panic won't kill the trade
I'm puzzled by this headline
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/past-midnight-headlines-greece
It doesn't make sense to me. Maybe he is trying to buy some political support, calm down the masses and try to win the confidence vote then pass the EU bailout
Unless the people are fucking idiots, they will see through it. The people want a say on austerity and defaults not EU membership
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/past-midnight-headlines-greece
It doesn't make sense to me. Maybe he is trying to buy some political support, calm down the masses and try to win the confidence vote then pass the EU bailout
Unless the people are fucking idiots, they will see through it. The people want a say on austerity and defaults not EU membership
Never bet the farm on any trade. If you are good, you can find 2-3 trades per year with exceptional odds, risk 2-3% on each and that's 30%+ for the year with minimal drawdowns. If you are not good, betting the farm is more likely to blow you up than help you retire.
The key signal was the stock price/market cap falling very low. That happened quite a bit before the blowup.