Global Macro Trading Journal

It's strange how natural disasters or major disruptions in day to day life not bank or debt related have little influence on stocks.

Like Japan's nuclear disaster or today Thailand. They are being flooded totally and the cost is prognosed into the many US billions and yet their stockmarket hasnt even hit bear market territory yet.


http://www.google.com/finance?q=thd

Quite strange no....
 
I only have an account with IB(Plus Oanda for fx) but maybe I need another stocks+futures broker in case IB goes bust one day so I can quickly switch from one broker to another without having to liquidate positions . This might a lesson to learn from MF Global
 
Quote from Daal:

I only have an account with IB(Plus Oanda for fx) but maybe I need another stocks+futures broker in case IB goes bust one day so I can quickly switch from one broker to another without having to liquidate positions . This might a lesson to learn from MF Global
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Definitely, it makes sense. Also having a working relationship with another broker dealer means you know there systems too.
 
Quote from Debaser82:

So whats the gameplan if Spain and Italy go towards and above 7%...
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I think you can make the case that the rout in Italian bonds the last 2 trading sessions may have something to do with MF Global. Apparently, they owned a crapload of the stuff and were dumping like mad Friday and today.

I think you could also make the case that EU politics has something to do with it. Obviously, the ECB can send yields plummeting anytime they feel like it. If they're holding off from purchases, it could be to force some political movement towards Italian reforms or even a movement to unseat Silvio. In a sense, a game of chicken between the Germans and the Italians.

Spent some time today w/the crowd at Zudcotti Park. Unbelievably large police presence and NYC banned all generators on Saturday, right ahead of a brutal Nor'easter bringing snow and brutally cold (for October temps). Fucking police state.
 
Quote from Debaser82:

So whats the gameplan if Spain and Italy go towards and above 7%...
More...

If that happens its time to panic. There are solutions out there but I'm afraid the uncle point of the ECB might be a quite lower level in the stock market than most realize
And I'm referring to other stuff, not more bond buying(Which has only temporarily helped)
 
So Greece decided to leave to the people whether they will do more austerity or not. It looks to me that the PM has decided to default fully but doesn't want to take the heat for it(And lose face as well), so he will leave to the people to do that

The implications of this to me are quite bearish, there is simply no mechanism right now to support Italy and Spain other than ECB bond buying. The ECB is run by lunatics so their tendency is to do too little too late

I don't want to be long risk assets over the coming months in any meaningful amount
 
Quote from Daal:

I only have an account with IB(Plus Oanda for fx) but maybe I need another stocks+futures broker in case IB goes bust one day so I can quickly switch from one broker to another without having to liquidate positions . This might a lesson to learn from MF Global
More...
makes you wonder if the shtf and you scored big whilst your firm went under ,honestly or thru hidden money, pretty sure they have thought about it, if you could collect
 
Quote from Daal:

So Greece decided to leave to the people whether they will do more austerity or not. It looks to me that the PM has decided to default fully but doesn't want to take the heat for it(And lose face as well), so he will leave to the people to do that

The implications of this to me are quite bearish, there is simply no mechanism right now to support Italy and Spain other than ECB bond buying. The ECB is run by lunatics so their tendency is to do too little too late

I don't want to be long risk assets over the coming months in any meaningful amount
More...

Thats a fair analysis. The possibility of referendum result returning in austerity's favor is next to nil. So, default is a certainty now. I don't have quotes for peripheral sovereign CDSs, but I guess the movement in those instruments last week must be getting reversed now pretty sharply. Obvious trades are: US treasuries go up, short euro, short usdjpy (with a 76 target) and short AUD.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't the new EU bailout needs to be approved by every EU member politicians over the coming weeks/months?
 
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