Global Macro Trading Journal

[benwm]

What do we know about the extent of the ECB buying so far. How many Greece, Italian and PIIGS debt do they now hold?

What size hit would the ECB take on a full Greek default?

It is quite feasible that Italian 10yr bond yields would increase form current 6% level to 10% within a couple of months (Why not?). Assuming this occurs, what are the implications?

I think we have moved into the next phase of the crisis.

 

[benwm]

Quote from Daal:

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't the new EU bailout needs to be approved by every EU member politicians over the coming weeks/months?

I thought EU bailouts were illegal?!

Oh yes, thats right they changed the rules, I forgot, pardon me.

 

[gmst]

Quote from Daal:

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't the new EU bailout needs to be approved by every EU member politicians over the coming weeks/months?

you are correct, it needs to be ratified.

 

[m22au]

Quote from gmst:

Thats a fair analysis. The possibility of referendum result returning in austerity's favor is next to nil. So, default is a certainty now. I don't have quotes for peripheral sovereign CDSs, but I guess the movement in those instruments last week must be getting reversed now pretty sharply. Obvious trades are: US treasuries go up, short euro, short usdjpy (with a 76 target) and short AUD.

gmst:

I saw a quick piece on Bloomberg TV (Europe) an hour or so ago, and the presenter said that a recent survey showed:

46% disagree with bailout
70% want to stay in Euro

I don't know about the accuracy / methodology of the survey. It could be inaccurate, and/or voters may change their mind between now and the referendum.

However, it would suggest that default is not as certain as you may believe. For what it's worth, before I saw that survey, I held the same opinion as you - that a significant majority of Greeks are sick of austerity, and just want the Government to do a 'proper' default.

 

[m22au]

Quote from Daal:

I only have an account with IB(Plus Oanda for fx) but maybe I need another stocks+futures broker in case IB goes bust one day so I can quickly switch from one broker to another without having to liquidate positions . This might a lesson to learn from MF Global

Also if your account is greater than $250k (cash) or $500k (securities), then diversification allows you to enjoy the benefit of SIPC coverage at multiple brokers, rather than just one.

 

[Butterball]

Last thing I heard was talking heads snickering and high fiving that a recession is off the table after the Q3 prelim numbers.

Just thinking out loud here: what if the entire Europe and MF Global headline porn is just a sideshow and what we're looking at is a global recession that cripples Q4 and Q1 corp. profits in the US, Europe and Asia/China. Is this priced in? No way Jose.

 

[gmst]

Quote from m22au:

gmst:

I saw a quick piece on Bloomberg TV (Europe) an hour or so ago, and the presenter said that a recent survey showed:

46% disagree with bailout
70% want to stay in Euro

I don't know about the accuracy / methodology of the survey. It could be inaccurate, and/or voters may change their mind between now and the referendum.

However, it would suggest that default is not as certain as you may believe. For what it's worth, before I saw that survey, I held the same opinion as you - that a significant majority of Greeks are sick of austerity, and just want the Government to do a 'proper' default.

Thanks for bringing this information to my knowledge. However, in absence of any specifics, I will try to intelligently guess and my assessment is following:

1. If the survey was done by bbg itself, only way it can do survey is to conduct a poll among bbg users (either in greece or europe or worldwide). In that case, this survey is meaningless.

2. If the survey was not done by bbg but rather by some big market research agency among greek population, then yes it should have some validity.

3. Results of the survey might be politically motivated - who knows who is doing the survey - govt or opposition or some private interest group

4. Looking at last few months mass public protests and violence and trade unions protesting in the Greece, it does seem that they are anti - austerity. The only doubt that might arise would be - "Is silent majority have a different opinion than the protestors". Looking at recent examples of mass protest in egypt, libya, mideast, India etc. it does seem that when so many people are protesting, more likely than not - silent majority doesn't have the other opinion.

So, all in all given my limited information, I will still position myself for the greek defaulting. However thank you for bringing that survey result before the board. Always good to question your hypothesis.

 

[m22au]

Quote from gmst:


So, all in all given my limited information, I will still position myself for the greek defaulting. However thank you for bringing that survey result before the board. Always good to question your hypothesis.

Thanks gmst, agree with most of what your wrote above.

Here is another survey - one that supports your view a little more.

www.businessinsider.com/5-key-points-on-the-greek-referendum-and-whats-coming-next-2011-11

"Note that, according to a weekend opinion poll, 60% of Greece citizens regard the recent deal as negative and seem to oppose its terms."

 

[ralph00]

The pols will frame the referendum as to make a 'no' vote on the bailout a vote to leave the euro - which most Greeks do not want to do. G-pap is a big-time douchebag for allowing Germany to conquer his country without a firing a shot, but he's not an idiot. He's putting this to a vote because he thinks he'll win.

 

[Daal]

I don't think the vote would be on EUR membership. All banks would be bankrupt before they even started to vote(As people get afraid of deval). In my view the chance of people voting yes to more austerity should be less than 10%, if that