Global Macro Trading Journal

Didnt Hugh Hendry say a Yen at these levels mean they are officially bankrupt and they would go nuclear....

Maybe he was early and it has to hit 50 or so for them to act.
 
Quote from ralph00:

You're going to be disappointed if waiting for the BOJ to bail anyone out of long USDJPY. Check out Michael McDonough's twitter stream this morning. Sharp guy. He just got back from Japan and has plenty to say.
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MS or someone else came out with a report saying usdjpy at 58, according to EW theory. So, anyone can pick any number - in the long run anything can be realized. USDJY at 70 is a distinct possibility, I cannot disagree with it.

What I am saying is that BoJ doesn't even need to act, just the threat that they might act will be enough to bring usdjpy back to 76.5+ over the next 2-4 days. If it doesn't happen, then ofcourse I will need to re-form my hypothesis.

There is one interesting thing here however - that usdjpy has not come back - its been around 3 hours. This is interesting but it is not enough to say that it won't come back within next 2-4 days.
 
Quote from luisHK:

I meant I had buy orders @76.52 and 76.32 and the price went largely through.
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Sorry my bad.

HAHAHAHA ...I actually thought you trade big or probably know someone quite big and know of two 'big' usdjpy buy orders go through -- something like 100s of millions in size.

Just a pun on myself - It seems I assume everyone on ET is trading millions in positions :D LOL


OKAY, here is my analysis of what happened. Below are few of the major reasons why big moves might happen in usdjpy particularly. Not sure which one (if any) applies to this situation:

1. Retail positioning is long 10:1 dollar yen, almost all of these trade using a high margin 10:1 to upto 30: 1 or even more. Its easy for a group of bank dealers in NYC banks to go for drinks on Thursday evening and decide that they are going to sell usdjpy nyc morning and stop all these retail crowd out of their trades. Assuming it takes 200-500 million in USDJPY sell in 30 minutes to push the price down, if you assume 10,000 retail guys being leveraged long 100k usdjpy in all, that gives around 1 billion long usdjpy retail position. Assuming 50% of them will have stops upto 75.95 (previous low), its almost guaranteed for bank guys to sell massively and then cover effortlessly, leaving them a big friday profit. Now, ofcourse you gotta have MDs/head of tradings desk involved in this sort of maneauvor as an associate or a VP wont be able to sell 200 million of usdjpy w.o any approval from above.

Most likely, this scenario is not applicable today since price hasn't reversed back yet.

2. Another hypothesis, you had some huge really huge 76 strike digital option expiring and the bank or the counterparty decided that it wants to move the price. This is not the case today since cut-off time is 10AM NYC for fx options, and the drop happened much before 10EST.

3. This is QE3 speculation driven

4. Europe efforts this weekend and over the next few weeks to fall short of required - this hypothesis lead some macro hf to sell large amounts of usdjpy, thinking this risk-off catalyst might be the thing that breaks off usdjpy recent range finally.

I think its either 3rd or 4th scenario in play today - but who knows really what caused this drop...All this is guessing i am doing.
 
Quote from Debaser82:

Didnt Hugh Hendry say a Yen at these levels mean they are officially bankrupt and they would go nuclear....

Maybe he was early and it has to hit 50 or so for them to act.
More...

My scenario (whether this happens next week or 10 years from now, I don't know) is that dollar/yen falls to some ridiculous number, forcing Japan to just let everything go. At that point, you can buy dollar/yen, short JGBs, prolly even buy Jap shares, rinise, repeat.
 
Someone just sent me this quote from the Hilsenrath article.

Fed officials believe their past purchase programs helped to lift stock markets, by driving investors from low-risk investments

Here we go again. Stock market added to the mandate. These people need professional help.
 
Quote from gmst:

True, but the beauty is unless QE3 does happen, this is going to reverse itself. Let the BOJ come in monday morning, if they do intervene longs will be happy :)
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Dow Jones is reporting no intervention before Thursday as per Nomura. This was 10am EST today.
 
So the Euro needs to be saved....

Then why did the French secretary of economics said 1 year ago the Euro Dollar rate of today is killing the Eurozone's industry and recovery....


Go figure....
 
Quote from Daal:



I'm considering buying JC Penny. [/B]
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With all the other opportunities around why in hell's teeth would you consider buying a retailer in this current climate ?
 
A post I picked up elsewhere, thoughts always welcome.

"There is now 440 Billion in the EFSF". At least everyone assumes there is. This money will only be there after bonds are issued and thats not going to well for the EFSF. How they can "leverage" that is a big question. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2011/oct/11/does-efsf-have-design-fault. The EFSF facts. The actual money injected is tiny - less then €29 million(not Billion) as confirmed on page 4 of the creation act. http://www.efsf.europa.eu/about/legal-documents/index.htm. At this moment they issued 3 bond loans worth 13 Billion http://www.efsf.europa.eu/investor_relations/issues/index.htm 9,5 Billion of this money has been spend: http://www.efsf.europa.eu/about/operations/index.htm

The EFSF today has less then 4 Billion Euro to spend.

:)
 
Quote from Dr Who:

With all the other opportunities around why in hell's teeth would you consider buying a retailer in this current climate ?
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What are some of these other opportunities?
 
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