Global Macro Trading Journal

luisHK · Oct 21, 2011

I meant I had buy orders @76.52 and 76.32 and the price went largely through while I was away.

ralph00 · Oct 21, 2011

Quote from luisHK:

??

http://www.robertsinn.com/2011/10/21/the-most-important-chart-of-the-morning/

Sorry, this rally isn't about euwope, this sniffs of QE3. Fed meeting in 3 weeks.

Martinghoul · Oct 21, 2011

Quote from luisHK:
Besides what is your take on the JPY spike ?? Went out for an hour and saw 2 USDJPY buy orders filled largely :eek:

It's not a JPY spike, it's a USD spankage... Pretty much all crosses.

luisHK · Oct 21, 2011

Thanks Ralph, I noticed after my preious post another thread on a similar topic :

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=229237

Daal · Oct 21, 2011

Market might be ahead of itself. Seems likely Fed will publish their Taylor Rule type calibration before they do QE

I haven't read the WSJ piece(google trick not working) but it seems all Hilsenharth has is a Tarullo speech

gmst · Oct 21, 2011

Quote from Martinghoul:

It's not a JPY spike, it's a USD spankage... Pretty much all crosses.

True, but the beauty is unless QE3 does happen, this is going to reverse itself. Let the BOJ come in monday morning, if they do intervene longs will be happy

ralph00 · Oct 21, 2011

You can read the Tarullo speech directly at the Fed's site. The fact that Tarullo is saying this is important. The guy is a lawyer and only talks about regulatory issues. As far as I know, he has never really said much about the economy. It is an impossibility that he gave a major economic address like this without every word approved by The Beard (or Dudley or Yellen or all 3).

ralph00 · Oct 21, 2011

Quote from gmst:

True, but the beauty is unless QE3 does happen, this is going to reverse itself. Let the BOJ come in monday morning, if they do intervene longs will be happy

You're going to be disappointed if waiting for the BOJ to bail anyone out of long USDJPY. Check out Michael McDonough's twitter stream this morning. Sharp guy. He just got back from Japan and has plenty to say.

Daal · Oct 21, 2011

Quote from ralph00:

You can read the Tarullo speech directly at the Fed's site. The fact that Tarullo is saying this is important. The guy is a lawyer and only talks about regulatory issues. As far as I know, he has never really said much about the economy. It is an impossibility that he gave a major economic address like this without every word approved by The Beard (or Dudley or Yellen or all 3).

Want to make a bet?I don't think there will be QE3 in next meeting

ralph00 · Oct 21, 2011

Whether it's this meeting or the next or the one after that is irrelevant. Stocks, commodities, risk currencies all have a bid underneath them. It's the Greenspan put taken to the most perverse of levels. Trade accordingly.