Global Macro Trading Journal

[shortchina]

I do not think property bubble collapse is the first impulse of china financial collapse, but the most powerful thing is the way of credit creation.

M2 grows 5 times over past 10 years, behind this was the imbalance of global trade and unsustainable investment to GDP rate. If US and EU have to lower its consumption rate, that is really bad for china.

China throw over 3 trillion USD into economy to offset the impact of global crisis (via state and local government, and also lending to state-owned companies) , but never thought this impact was lagging. Then this huge money did only transfer to more low effeciency capacity.

Quote from ralph00:

Just saw a pretty powerful interview with Chanos on Bloomberg. He's been beating the drum about China for awhile, of course, but he says talk of a collapse of the property bubble and a serious economic slowdown is no longer some sort of theory about the future. He says it's happening right NOW. With everyone focused on Europe, people aren't paying attention to the world's growth engine reversing.

I'll add to that the fact that copper has not joined the recent risk rally and (as technicians would say) has crashed through support - now at the lowest level since December.

I'm very tempted to triple my AUD short, but will sleep on it for now.

 

[Debaser82]

Quote from ralph00:

He should have recommended Apple.

http://www.google.com//finance?chdn...cmpto=NYSE:GLD&cmptdms=0&q=NASDAQ:AAPL&ntsp=0

Yes certainly. But Apple pre 2000 really was shit. Who could have known...

I'm sure in 5 or 10 years time we will be hitting our head for not buying X or Y too.

 

[Martinghoul]

Quote from dhpar:
could you please venture into explaining to us mortals why that would be the case?

Ha, this is just my view, as merely mortal as anyone else... Just 'cause the banks will be screwed by this and the mkt might freeze, which means nobody willing to lend to anybody. That would mean that people who are short (and desperate) will be paying up, so the rate will, perversely, go up. That is, kinda, happening in EUR at the moment, although the details are slightly different.

 

[macroman]

trading idea :

because of this :

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/us/2011-09/21/content_13760703.htm

there will be/already is arms race.

Fits well with US. Creates jobs.

Occasional war to show off and have a reason to replenish helps in many ways boosting economy. There are losers, but thats life.

work is cheap. resources required for arms probably not, especially if one in a hurry.

chinese will have to follow. No way around that.

see no credible alternative to this scenario

thats where I am looking....

 

[Butterball]

BOE considering cutting. Sterling rate futs spiking but coming down quickly. Bought some DEC and MAR.

 

[macroman]

that is more than funny

"If the economy continues to be bad - and I think it will because we have incompetent people running the country - and if the Republicans pick the wrong candidate, I will very strongly consider running as an independent," he said.

master of bankrupcies running for president
hahahahaha

who else but donald trump

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...ays-donald-trump/story-fn3dxity-1226142970832

 

[ralph00]

Quote from Debaser82:

Yes certainly. But Apple pre 2000 really was shit. Who could have known...

I'm sure in 5 or 10 years time we will be hitting our head for not buying X or Y too.

Isn't that the whole point of investing?

 

[ralph00]

Quote from Martinghoul:

Ha, this is just my view, as merely mortal as anyone else... Just 'cause the banks will be screwed by this and the mkt might freeze, which means nobody willing to lend to anybody. That would mean that people who are short (and desperate) will be paying up, so the rate will, perversely, go up. That is, kinda, happening in EUR at the moment, although the details are slightly different.

Cutting IOER may have all kinds of unforseen consequences, most of them ranging from bad to disastrous. I have a pretty low opinion of the Bernanke, Yellen, Dudley axis running things at the Fed, but even I do not believe they will be stupid enough to do this.

 

[ralph00]

Quote from Butterball:

BOE considering cutting. Sterling rate futs spiking but coming down quickly. Bought some DEC and MAR.

This is why I went way long short sterling futures ahead of that meeting. I was sure they were going to pull the trigger. Turns out I was probably off by a meeting or 2. Bummer.

 

[dhpar]

Quote from ralph00:

Cutting IOER may have all kinds of unforseen consequences, most of them ranging from bad to disastrous. I have a pretty low opinion of the Bernanke, Yellen, Dudley axis running things at the Fed, but even I do not believe they will be stupid enough to do this.

sorry but i do not see that. we did not have IOER before 2008 and i don't see why it could not be dropped now.

if dropped it should translate into asset inflation - and actually in inflation of all kinds but isn't it what fed wants?