Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Daal:

In order to make sure the capital won't be spent away you just need to calculate a 'burn rate' that is low enough that will make the capital very likely to outlive her, based on average life expectancy plus some kind of safety premium.

My own parents have become millionaries(in reals) as a result of the brazil real estate boom, but they are extremely risk averse and thus don't 'burn' their networth and instead try to be cashflow and networth positive every year. To me that is insane, I don't want to the richest person in the cemetery but rather enjoy everything while I'm living
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Daal, thanks for the feedback.

The burnrate is pretty high as my mother who is single and retired on a very low pension is eating up the nest egg as well, the increasing rate of inflation, etc.

Regardless i am of the opinion there is always a certain amount of uncertainty one can not prepare himself for. You can have enough money to last 20 years and die of cancer the next year. Or you could have enough money to last 15 years and you stay alive 25 years etc.

Given how intrests both from bonds and dividends are taxed between 20% to 50% here I have always been inclined to favour currency gains and capital gains as they remain untaxed for now. With the obvious higher risk in stocks bonds in foreign currency seem like the prefered play. Liquidity has to be there very much also given money needs to be available instantly if needed.

Anyway, there are people far less fortunate so if an adjustment in life style has to be made to survive so be it, but for the time being something like a 5% return a year would be a big help. :D
 
Quote from Debaser82:



Given how intrests both from bonds and dividends are taxed between 20% to 50% here I have always been inclined to favour currency gains and capital gains as they remain untaxed for now. With the obvious higher risk in stocks bonds in foreign currency seem like the prefered play. Liquidity has to be there very much also given money needs to be available instantly if needed.
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Hi Debaser

As you seem to be Belgian, and Belgium is possibly my next destination if I succeed working it out nicely taxwise, can you elaborate on the capital gains tax exemptions ? AFAIK capital gains are taxed as income if one is actively trading, which you seem to be be doing. How serious are the belgian tax authotities in checking how actively one is trading and wether those capital gains are taxed ? Do you have any advice on the topic ?

Thanks !
 
Quote from luisHK:

Hi Debaser

As you seem to be Belgian, and Belgium is possibly my next destination if I succeed working it out nicely taxwise, can you elaborate on the capital gains tax exemptions ? AFAIK capital gains are taxed as income if one is actively trading, which you seem to be be doing. How serious are the belgian tax authotities in checking how actively one is trading and wether those capital gains are taxed ? Do you have any advice on the topic ?

Thanks !
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The law specifies no capital gains taxes need to be payed if the portfolio is managed 'as a good housefather'. Which in reality means they check the frequency of transactions. Given the vagueness of the law and the cultural standards here leaning towards southern europe control on it has been basically non existent.

However, as the crisis deepens in europe and if we ever get a new government here you can expect this to change. To what extend remains to be seen as the numbers and specifics are being negotiated as we speak.
 
Thanks Debaser for your quick reply. I knew about the "good housefather" mention in the law but definetely not that enforcement was non existent !

The fact there is such a mess in Belgian politics is actually one of the things that make the country look attractive :p

Besides do Belgian residents even write the amount of capital gains they earned each year on their tax declaration form ? I understood from a local friend that he doesn't, as he expects that amount not to be taxable . Possibly one is only required to declare taxable income on the form, but that sounds strange . If that's the way to go, it sounds pretty good because writing large numbers on the tax declaration is more likely to attract unnecessary attention (it's not his case though, he's dealing with very small amount)
 
Quote from Daal:

A chart to keep in mind when people try to convince you that the universe is about to end and risk assets will go down forever
http://www.businessinsider.com/lets...-bunch-of-sovereign-defaults-about-now-2011-9

The world has came back from many debt crises before
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Interesting chart, and thanks for posting it.

Although I know it's dangerous to say "this time, it's different", maybe this time it is?

ie, Greece, Portugal and Ireland alone might default without a big drama. However it's difficult to believe that one or more of Italy, Spain and France can default without financial markets getting extremely upset. And that's before we consider the possibility, however remote, of one or more of the UK, Japan and the USA printing many billions or trillions to get rid of their own debt problems.

I am guessing that most of those historical sovereign defaults have been in insignificant low-GDP countries, and not significant developed high-GDP countries such as Italy (or Spain, France, UK, Japan or USA).
 
rumor: SNB considering moving peg to 1.25. SNB declined to comment on market rumor.

I am fading this one. I don't think they are going to do it. Entered short at 1.217
 
alright i saw the price going to 1.2125 and then waited for it to reach below 1.208, but covered at 1.215 when it started to rally back.

Maybe there is some truth to this rumor who know, price has been up for more than 45 minutes now. Its generally too long a period for a rumor to hold, also the sharp and sustained price movement signals probably just probably there is some kind of truth to this rumor

Indeed, I went long 30% of my short position at 1.215. Upside 350 pips, downside 100 pis (assuming i can get out at 1.205).
 
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