Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from ralph00:

Unloaded another chunk of those SSO puts on the open, up about 90% on that tranche. Way into house money at this point, so I'll hold onto the rest until after the Beard's talk.

Read Buffett, listen to him, soak him in ... however, investing just because he bought something is as lame as it gets.
More...

Its not because he bought, its because of what YOU SAID. You claim BAC preferred is almost guaranteed as treasuries, they yield 8% or more, that seem quite a compensation for the 'almost' part
 
Quote from Daal:

The market preferred has a bigger yield than the Buffett one, which goes to show that the bulk of the exposure for Buffett is on the equity side
More...

Sorry, I don't understand. What do such covenants typically look like? Thanks.
 
Maybe I shouldn't have said 'exposure'. What I meant is that for Buffett to take the preferred risk he asked for equity value which is quite at risk, which goes to show that he is comfortable with the equity side
 
Damn, nailed that SSO trade on the way up and on the way down. I'm thinking I like this option stuff! What a week. I'm headed to the butcher's - gonna have him cut me the biggest fattest ribeye possible and enjoy what looks like a beautiful evening before the arrival of this biblical storm.:cool:
 
Quote from ralph00:

Yeah, but as gold collapsed, the financials he owns were up strong. Finally, he was properly hedged!

Stories of massive redemptions at his funds soon to follow. This guy is a merger-arb who ventures into the MBS thing and hit a grand slam (thanks to Pelligrini). He's clearly out of his league in global macro (as was Pelligrini!). 40% loss in 8 months while S&P is off 6% is amateur hour.
More...

I thought Paulson's losses were on bad stock picks (Sino Forest, BAC etc) rather than global macro? His main macro call, gold, is up almost 30% for the year.

Also, Soros (1987) and Robertson (1999-2000) have both had comparable 35-40% drawdowns, and never made a home run as profitable as Paulson's housing trade.
 
Macro is more than divining the direction of commodities and currencies. Along with gold, his main macro call was the recovery in the economy and housing which led him to the financials (I'm guessing his advisor Greenspan was whispering in his ear on this one, saying the gubmint would always stand behind C and BAC so why not buy; yet another disastrous forecast by the Maestro). I would assume his Sino-Forrest purchase was another macro call - what better way to profit off the coming housing boom than buying an undervalued owner of major forestry assets.

But, yes, I agree, Soros and Robertson are pikers compared to JP.:confused:
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

I thought Paulson's losses were on bad stock picks (Sino Forest, BAC etc) rather than global macro? His main macro call, gold, is up almost 30% for the year.
More...
That's just completely off. How could Gold possibly be his main macro call? It's nothing more than a side-bet for those share holders who invested in the gold denominated share-classes.

Paulson's entire macro thesis treated the last recession as a garden variety type contraction that will be followed by a text-book multi-year period of happy times. He became highly bullish on an imminent housing recovery and accordingly bet on a rapid, multi-year nominal GDP recovery coupled with high inflation. Hence his huge two-pronged long-side bets on financials and cyclicals.

Paulson was caught like a deer in the headlights during the summer months of 2010 by the first act of the European meltdown but was handed a gift when the Fed's QE2 saved his skin. His flagship fund was down 12% through August to finish the year with a plus of 15%, just in time for the Christmas bonuses. For 2011 they'll need a miracle as Advantage Plus will require a 65% quarter just just to reclaim its high watermark.

If you believe his losses were purely due to bad luck picking the stocks in his favorite sectors then go look through banks and cyclicals and skim through their performance over the last 18 months. No matter what name you picked it ain't pretty.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top