Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from ralph00:

Yeah, but as gold collapsed, the financials he owns were up strong. Finally, he was properly hedged!

Stories of massive redemptions at his funds soon to follow. This guy is a merger-arb who ventures into the MBS thing and hit a grand slam (thanks to Pelligrini). He's clearly out of his league in global macro (as was Pelligrini!). 40% loss in 8 months while S&P is off 6% is amateur hour.
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Paulson's mining exposure is mostly through the South African miners and they have acted extremely weak with some of them still at the levels of when gold was at 1k. Either they are a gigantic steal right now or they are bound to remain crap for eternity.
 
Covered about one third of my SSO puts at a 50% gain. Will likely hold the rest with a plan to cover in the panic after the Beard doesn't offer a market bailout at 10 ET tomorrow ... this plan is subject to change from the moment I hit submit!:p
 
I'm considering taking a long on BAC. Here's a good case on why the stock might be a buy
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2011/08/bank-of-america-time-everyone-took-long.html

But of course, this is ET, everyone 'knows' BAC is bankrupt and within days of a failure. Truth is, is very likely the stock price has already over reflected the risks that exist in the bank

What holds me back are 2 things
-Fed might be slow in adding stimulus(Bernanke will probably not signal shit today) in fact I'm under hedged on the USD right now because of this
-Double dip should lead to a new round of stock declines so there might be a better opportunity to buy the stock after a new round credit losses get priced in
 
Quote from Daal:

I'm considering taking a long on BAC. Here's a good case on why the stock might be a buy
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2011/08/bank-of-america-time-everyone-took-long.html

But of course, this is ET, everyone 'knows' BAC is bankrupt and within days of a failure. Truth is, is very likely the stock price has already over reflected the risks that exist in the bank

What holds me back are 2 things
-Fed might be slow in adding stimulus(Bernanke will probably not signal shit today) in fact I'm under hedged on the USD right now because of this
-Double dip should lead to a new round of stock declines so there might be a better opportunity to buy the stock after a new round credit losses get priced in
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Read the Bronte thing yesterday minutes before the Buffet news. The Buffett deal is good for the BofA organization, good for Buffett, but maybe not very good for the common shareholders - yes their stake may not go to 0, but it may not grow either. Goldman shares are lower now than when Buffett did that deal. BofA is a zombie bank and Buffett will bleed that sucker dry.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Read the Bronte thing yesterday minutes before the Buffet news. The Buffett deal is good for the BofA organization, good for Buffett, but maybe not very good for the common shareholders - yes their stake may not go to 0, but it may not grow either. Goldman shares are lower now than when Buffett did that deal. BofA is a zombie bank and Buffett will bleed that sucker dry.
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The market preferred has a bigger yield than the Buffett one, which goes to show that the bulk of the exposure for Buffett is on the equity side
 
Yes, if he had to mark to market, but he doesn't. His 6% return is almost as guaranteed as buying Treasuries, and he has the chance of a significant kicker. Buffett got himself a great deal. Other than having Buffett on board, I fail to see how the common shareholders were assisted.

Buffett's move was a gift to shareholders looking to get out from under this POS. The only question about yesterday's action in the shares was who unloaded more - Paulson or Berkowitz. If this guy Hempton is not weighed down by his ego, I expect he used yesterday to get out from under as well.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Yes, if he had to mark to market, but he doesn't. His 6% return is almost as guaranteed as buying Treasuries, and he has the chance of a significant kicker. Buffett got himself a great deal. Other than having Buffett on board, I fail to see how the common shareholders were assisted.

Buffett's move was a gift to shareholders looking to get out from under this POS. The only question about yesterday's action in the shares was who unloaded more - Paulson or Berkowitz. If this guy Hempton is not weighed down by his ego, I expect he used yesterday to get out from under as well.
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You should go out and buy a shitload of marketable preferred BAC stock then
 
Unloaded another chunk of those SSO puts on the open, up about 90% on that tranche. Way into house money at this point, so I'll hold onto the rest until after the Beard's talk.

Read Buffett, listen to him, soak him in ... however, investing just because he bought something is as lame as it gets.
 
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