Global Macro Trading Journal

Kassz,

My take is this spike is due to correlated impact of US 10yr moving up.

The bbg news that you refer came out much earlier compared to when $yen started spiking up. And I would argue that this news is another cause for $yen to go down and not up, since it means, continuing strength of yen inspite of recent massive ($40-45 bn) intervention is forcing BoJ and MoF to consider another approaches.

Think about it - If $ 45 bn of direct $Yen intervention over a span of 1 day couldn't stop $yen from going down subsequently, where does this 100bn support to exporters count as far as stopping $yen strength.

At least this is my assessment. Will be interested in hearing what Martin thinks on this ? Anyways I am in the trade, albeit I entered at 76.8 so far earlier :eek:
 
Rolled the profits from my SSO calls into SSO puts - a couple of different OOM strikes, can't remember the exact ones - at the close of trading today. See if I can make winners coming and going on this one. :)
 
Yeah, but as gold collapsed, the financials he owns were up strong. Finally, he was properly hedged!

Stories of massive redemptions at his funds soon to follow. This guy is a merger-arb who ventures into the MBS thing and hit a grand slam (thanks to Pelligrini). He's clearly out of his league in global macro (as was Pelligrini!). 40% loss in 8 months while S&P is off 6% is amateur hour.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Yeah, but as gold collapsed, the financials he owns were up strong. Finally, he was properly hedged!

Stories of massive redemptions at his funds soon to follow. This guy is a merger-arb who ventures into the MBS thing and hit a grand slam (thanks to Pelligrini). He's clearly out of his league in global macro (as was Pelligrini!). 40% loss in 8 months while S&P is off 6% is amateur hour.
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The trick to winning with Paulson is that you have to time him :p
 
Quote from gmst:

Kassz,

My take is this spike is due to correlated impact of US 10yr moving up.

The bbg news that you refer came out much earlier compared to when $yen started spiking up. And I would argue that this news is another cause for $yen to go down and not up, since it means, continuing strength of yen inspite of recent massive ($40-45 bn) intervention is forcing BoJ and MoF to consider another approaches.

Think about it - If $ 45 bn of direct $Yen intervention over a span of 1 day couldn't stop $yen from going down subsequently, where does this 100bn support to exporters count as far as stopping $yen strength.

At least this is my assessment. Will be interested in hearing what Martin thinks on this ? Anyways I am in the trade, albeit I entered at 76.8 so far earlier :eek:
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I've never been one to argue against trading with the trend. But be nimble, CBs can be powerful when they want to, even if it is short term.
 
Buffett investment makes sense, over the long-run BAC is fine because they can earn their capital and pay off all the lawsuits, the risk is a liquidity run and failure due panics. Ironically, Buffett investment makes the liquidity run less likely so his investment makes the investment worth more
 
Bought a few more SSO puts on the open.

Buffett investment is essentially a government bailout. Like Paulie becoming a partner in the restaurant in Goodfella's - it means nobody can fuck with the restaurant. Buffett has an open line to the President (and is pretty much the guy's last important public supporter), so his investment means nothing too bad will be allowed to happen to BAC (of course that doesn't mean the bank's common shareholders aren't still dead money).
 
I'm sure the SEC is busy at work investigating the 11% pop in BAC yesterday. As we know, nobody in the Buffett organization would ever think of profiting off of something like this. :)
 
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