Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from m22au:

just a silly thought, as there is another strong risk-off day ...

isn't this all just a bit self-fulfilling like October 2008?

ie, if equities decline, then Italian yields are likely to rise further, causing equities to decline etc. etc.

I could be wrong, but I can't see this risk-off mode stopping until someone (Fed and/or ECB) step in with some bond buying or money printing effort.
More...

From my observations since I have started to follow stock markets closely the risk-off mode continues till the markets finds ANY reason to stop it, it doesn't have to be all that rational or the government doing the 'right' solution. the EU has been imploding all through the QE2 period and it was all predictable, yet the market kept climbing because bad news got ignored, now its the other way, till it isn't anymore
It seems that fear is mean reverting, there is only so much that can go on before people change their minds
 
Quote from Butterball:

Getting stopped out of a good deal of my currency (long) positions here. Not short currencies (vs. USD) just yet but salivating at the potential catch-downside in AUD, NZD, NOK and SEK amongst others.
More...

Will remain short AUD with plan to cover shortly after the NFP # tomorrow morning.

My plan:

markets remain solidly lower today
weak nfp number sends markets to panic lows
will cover before the open of us trading as i believe that will set the low for this move
will plan to short in size at some point in the future
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

Indeed... The SIV they can "implicitly" guaranteed can only be so big. Otherwise, the ratings agencies, who have learned a trick or two about SIVs in 2007/08, will go ballistic.
More...

Is there any way to 'invest' in the EFSF?Maybe there is a IB somewhere creating somekind of structured product based on it. I'm curious to see how the market is pricing the CDS of this debt
 
Quote from Daal:
Is there any way to 'invest' in the EFSF?Maybe there is a IB somewhere creating somekind of structured product based on it. I'm curious to see how the market is pricing the CDS of this debt
More...
Hahaha, I don't think you can buy EFSF bonds, but you may be able to eventually. As to CDS, best you can get is probably the SovX index.
 
It seems to me that the commodity rally unleashed by QE2 lead to some follow through in the core CPI(which reached 1.6%), now its the opposite, RJI is down 12.5% from the top and oil is collapsing in a big way. As a result I'm starting to join more of the QE3 camp as it looks like not just there is a material threat of a new recession but also that inflationary pressures will vanish
 
With Obama AWOL from pretty much anything except fundraisers and seemingly disinterested in everything except his re-election and his golf game, Geithner and Bernanke are pretty much running economic policy in this country all by themselves (has anybody else noticed that the entirety of the senior finance team has jumped ship with the exception of geithner; they certainly read the tea leaves well). Bernanke, by dint of his foolish policies, has made the stock market the 3rd Fed mandate. As it goes down, he has no choice but to step in at some point. Some of us have had zero doubt about this for months.

We've already had 4 interventions in the last 36 hours - SNB MOF, BOJ ECB - I expect the Fed to do its part soon. Whether it works this time is a different story.
 
Quote from ralph00:

As it goes down, he has no choice but to step in at some point. Some of us have had zero doubt about this for months.
More...

The difference is that the QE3 mouthpieces have been calling that for months with no good reasoning behind it other than making political complaints. They have no P&Ls to look at everyday hence their cries are worthless from a trading point of view
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top