Global Macro Trading Journal

[ralph00]

Quote from Daal:

The difference is that the QE3 mouthpieces have been calling that for months with no good reasoning behind it other than making political complaints. They have no P&Ls to look at everyday hence their cries are worthless from a trading point of view

No, you misrepresent.

Bernanke has boxed himself in. By launching QE to jack stock prices, he now owns the stock market. As in all markets, there will be price corrections. What would he then do? Admit his mistake and wipe his hands of it - thus likely causing a crash. No, like any bureaucrat, he'll double down on a bad policy.

Of course, if the economy and financial assets stay happy, he wouldn't do another QE. That was never in question. But markets and economies never stay that way forever. What we're saying is that the man has locked himself into perpetual QEs.

It's the Greenspan put on steroids. Now everyone wants to know. What will the Fed do, when will they do it. It's pathetic.

I know you're impressed with college degrees and Phds and Princeton and MIT and all that crap (Penn man myself), but the scoreboard is pretty damn clear. Central planning doesn't work - not in Moscow, not in Havana, not at the Fed.

 

[Daal]

Quote from ralph00:

No, you misrepresent.

Bernanke has boxed himself in. By launching QE to jack stock prices, he now owns the stock market. As in all markets, there will be price corrections. What would he then do? Admit his mistake and wipe his hands of it - thus likely causing a crash. No, like any bureaucrat, he'll double down on a bad policy.

Of course, if the economy and financial assets stay happy, he wouldn't do another QE. That was never in question. But markets and economies never stay that way forever. What we're saying is that the man has locked himself into perpetual QEs.

It's the Greenspan put on steroids. Now everyone wants to know. What will the Fed do, when will they do it. It's pathetic.

I know you're impressed with college degrees and Phds and Princeton and MIT and all that crap (Penn man myself), but the scoreboard is pretty damn clear. Central planning doesn't work - not in Moscow, not in Havana, not at the Fed.

Dude there is nothing new about QE or the Bernanke Fed. When the economy weakens the Fed acts, rates are pinned at zero so they buy USTs, if rates were at 5%, they would......hmm....buy USTs to drive rates down(Thats what Greenspan did)

The whole world is complaining about something equivalent to a 75bps rate cut from the Fed called QE2, thats what QE is: a rate cut.
This is called following your mandate

 

[Kassz007]

Quote from ralph00:

Bernanke has boxed himself in. By launching QE to jack stock prices, he now owns the stock market.

You are sadly mistaken if you think Bernanke sets policies based on fluctuations in the stock market.

 

[Martinghoul]

Quote from ralph00:
I know you're impressed with college degrees and Phds and Princeton and MIT and all that crap (Penn man myself), but the scoreboard is pretty damn clear. Central planning doesn't work - not in Moscow, not in Havana, not at the Fed.

Be that as it may, nobody has so far come up with a viable system that is completely free of central planning. This is especially true in the modern world where centrally planned economies of your competitors bestow a whole bunch of advantages on them.

 

[ralph00]

Quote from Daal:

Dude there is nothing new about QE or the Bernanke Fed. When the economy weakens the Fed acts, rates are pinned at zero so they buy USTs, if rates were at 5%, they would......hmm....buy USTs to drive rates down(Thats what Greenspan did)

The whole world is complaining about something equivalent to a 75bps rate cut from the Fed called QE2, thats what QE is: a rate cut.
This is called following your mandate

What's with the 'dudes' and the 'mans' lately. Are you going to cool school or something?

I'm trying to argue a negative here which puts me at a disadvantage, i.e. how do you respond to the imbeciles who tell us disaster is the alternative to Fed policies. There is only one fact: disaster is the result of Fed policies.

And please stop dragging out the 30s nonsense. Relying on the recency effect is a sure way to the poorhouse.

http://twitter.com/#!/KeithMcCullough/status/99192554800685056

Indeed.

 

[Daal]

Quote from ralph00:

What's with the 'dudes' and the 'mans' lately. Are you going to cool school or something?

Yes I'm trying to be cool because impressing you is such a high priority for me

 

[ralph00]

Bought TUP, XOM, and more WMT and MSFT into the close.

 

[m22au]

random thought:

If and when the S&P 500 can rally by more than 2% (there were a few 1% plus rallies in the last 24 hours), then the possible rationale (especially in the media) could be that the market is starting to price in hints of QE3 from the Fed on Tuesday at its next meeting.

 

[Daal]

There seems to be a at least decent probability that the EFSF will be increased this weekend

 

[Daal]

I can't help but to think that the reason the WH wants Geithner to stay is so they can fire him in 2012(before the elections), removing the blame from the new Treasury secretary on the economy(which will happen if he enters right now)