Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Martinghoul:

Well, they are somewhat more accountable, but not in the realm of monetary policy, that's for sure. The only bit that matters is the actual reported "mark-to-mkt" losses and those only matter because the cantons got so used to regular payments from the SNB. Now that the SNB isn't making money (and losing it, in fact), the cantons have lost a source of revenue that they used to take for granted and they're not too happy. However, there's no questioning of the SNB independence so far.

Sure, I agree that this isn't something an intervention can solve. I am talking about proper capital controls, where you cannot buy Swiss currency or your Swiss deposits get taxed or something.
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I dont know man, the BCB has been trying to tax everything known to man and do all kinds of controls in brazil and the real keeps rising
 
Quote from Daal:
I dont know man, the BCB has been trying to tax everything known to man and do all kinds of controls in brazil and the real keeps rising
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Yeah, but the Swiss have done it successfully in the past (like in the 70s or smth, I don't remember exactly). So maybe they know how to do it. Obviously, all this really hinges on what the Eurotards do (or fail to do), so it's possible that all their efforts are doomed, like the BCB's.
 
 
Quote from Butterball:

I am now once again positioned for full European mayhem. That usually means a bounce and a sharp relief rally are near.
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obviously there is a big chance of some type of short-term rally in European bonds and equities.

But as per AEP, some European leaders are out in August for a summer vacation,

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ica-is-merely-wounded-Europe-risks-death.html

so if that's the case, the chance of some kind of intervention may be lower than if it was February.
 
RBA raised the white flag on rates last night. Aussie getting hammered today. Expect rate cuts in 2012 if not sooner.

Excepting the mining industry, Australia is really getting squeezed by higher rates and the higher aussie. The banking system - totally dependent on offshore funding - is a disaster waiting to happen. There is a seriously long way down for this currency if mining slows.

I remain short the aussie, but still not yet of significant size.
 
Quote from ralph00:

RBA raised the white flag on rates last night. Aussie getting hammered today. Expect rate cuts in 2012 if not sooner.

Excepting the mining industry, Australia is really getting squeezed by higher rates and the higher aussie. The banking system - totally dependent on offshore funding - is a disaster waiting to happen. There is a seriously long way down for this currency if mining slows.

I remain short the aussie, but still not yet of significant size.
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As you probably know Ralph, on 15 July Westpac stuck their neck out and called for a rate cut before Christmas:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3237906#post3237906
 
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