Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Martinghoul:

And the Aussie housing mkt is a beaut, innit?

I know there's been a lot of discussions of it everywhere, but, surely, if there's anything that just screams "top of the bubble", it's this right here: https://www.investorville.com.au/
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Thanks for that link. A big-four too-big-to-fail bank making a game out of property "investing". Hmmmm something is not quite right there.

For everyone who hasn't had a read, here is the Aussie Housing Bubble thread:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=199582

The next batch of monthly RP Data-Rismark Property Indices should be released in the next few days. Then a few hours later there will be articles in the Aussie mainstream media with property industry representatives making funny excuses for property prices that are relatively flat / declining gradually.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

And the Aussie housing mkt is a beaut, innit?

I know there's been a lot of discussions of it everywhere, but, surely, if there's anything that just screams "top of the bubble", it's this right here: https://www.investorville.com.au/
More...

that is a classic: '"you can even buy more investment properties to increase value of your portfolio"

:cool:
 
Quote from macroman:

that is a classic: '"you can even buy more investment properties to increase value of your portfolio"

:cool:
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I wonder if the simulator includes the possibility of a 20% plus decline in property prices, unemployment over 10% and a deep recession / depression?
 
It's like paper trading in a forex account (talking about investorville).

In other potentially bad news for Oz, China has (apparently) halted offshore borrowing for domestic firms. Companies have been borrowing yuan cheap in HK, then bringing it back to the mainland for use - a major source of credit and profit.
 
Quote from Daal:
Anyone know why EFF hit 17bps yesterday?
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GC dragging it up, Daal... Should come back down, hopefully, with this ceiling thing out of the way. Or might be that peeps will have to wait for the downgrade, but, at any rate, should be temporary.
 
Just bought slugs of WMT, MSFT in a tax-advantaged account. Will check off to reinvest divvies and go to sleep for 10-20 years.

These guys are still making tons of money, yield more than the 10 year Treasury, and are selling cheap. No brainers for those with a longer time horizon. At the rate WMT is buying back stock, there will be no float in 15 years, but a market cap of $200B!

Math often takes its time, but its laws are irrefutable.

Am looking at JNJ, XOM, CVX, HPQ as well, but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

Could big cap stocks get cheaper? Of course - I would have loved to have bought at 1974 when stuff was 4X earnings, but I have to deal with the market I have in front of me.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Just bought slugs of WMT, MSFT in a tax-advantaged account. Will check off to reinvest divvies and go to sleep for 10-20 years.

These guys are still making tons of money, yield more than the 10 year Treasury, and are selling cheap. No brainers for those with a longer time horizon. At the rate WMT is buying back stock, there will be no float in 15 years, but a market cap of $200B!

Math often takes its time, but its laws are irrefutable.

Am looking at JNJ, XOM, CVX, HPQ as well, but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

Could big cap stocks get cheaper? Of course - I would have loved to have bought at 1974 when stuff was 4X earnings, but I have to deal with the market I have in front of me.
More...

Ralph you might be interested in this article about a long-term investment in XOM:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/283613-sell-the-10-year-u-s-treasury-and-buy-exxon-mobil-instead
 
USD/CHF new low 0.7725 and CHF/JPY heading towards 100.00

all this despite Spain and Italy yields well off their highs
 
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