Still greedily holding onto fcx puts. It's right in the area from where it has previously bounced. I guess I'm waiting for one of those nice overnight flushes, where the S&P opens down 1% or more - those are almost always great short-covering opportunities, the bids on the puts go to the moon for about 10 minutes!
Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Rosenberg 99% chance of new recession by 2012
http://noir.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.h...//media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vcLymWs.PVVM.asf
http://noir.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.h...//media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vcLymWs.PVVM.asf
Pimco is saying QE3 is likely to be extending the extended period or capping UST yields. Its curious they would say that given that there is 0 indication from anyone at the FOMC that this is how they would do it. I do think there is some reasoning to the theory(With all the political pressure against something like QE3) but I have to yet to see any evidence
I guess 800 years of financial crises data is not enough to build a consensus
Carmen Reinhart is bullish on the euro
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110324-710699.html
I wont be able to take a big position with conviction after this
Carmen Reinhart is bullish on the euro
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110324-710699.html
I wont be able to take a big position with conviction after this
Don't get me wrong guys I really enjoy this thread and the econ/current events articles, but I have noticed that the tone recently has shifted to a he said she said of big and not so big names and their market outlooks. While I'm all for sentiment analysis, I would hope that as traders we are making our own decisions on positions and not being distracted by the talking heads. Just an observation.
Today is a good example why shorting the EUR is so tempting. A bunch of bad news comes out and the currency drops 1%, even though the CDS and bond markets seem to be expecting a default(Along with most analysts and economists) the markets still respond to bad news flows and it seems likely the bad news flow will continue and get quite a bit worse once the banking systems get hit
At the same time, maybe buying German bunds is an even better bet than shorting EUR
At the same time, maybe buying German bunds is an even better bet than shorting EUR
I don't recall the rating agencies downgrading US banks on deposit run fears during the crisis but it appears that they like to do that
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp...it-flight-concerns-and-well-general-bankruptc
If anything they might just fuel the run
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp...it-flight-concerns-and-well-general-bankruptc
If anything they might just fuel the run
Guys/gals like Roghoff and Reinhardt wouldn't last 5 minutes actually trading money, but do offer tidbits of knowledge from time to time. Our job is to take their academic scribblings and turn them into a winning trade strategy.
Maybe it's because he never went to college, but Daal does seem to be unusually impressed with guys with lots of lettering after their names.
