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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Reading some of Dudley's comments over the wire. This guy is completely nuts. At least he hasn't regurgitated his asinine Ipad comment of a couple of weeks ago. On a good note, he just put the bid back into silver, and I'm pretty sure NLY is going to continue to give 20% IRR for at least 2 more years to come!
"Monetary policy has to stay ahead of the curb, but before you talk about tightening--and you know I'll be at the front-center when the time comes to tightening--we have to stop accommodating," Fisher told reporters after delivering a speech at a breakfast hosted by The Real Estate Council here. "To me it is a matter of process. The first step in the process will be to end accommodation."
After the QE2, the battle will be to end reinvestment, then end extended period, this might take months
After the QE2, the battle will be to end reinvestment, then end extended period, this might take months
Fisher, however, said he isn't ruling out the possibility to vote in favor of reinvesting some maturing and expiring assets of the Fed's balance sheet after the $600 billion bond-buying program, or QE2, ends in June. "It depends on economic conditions, we will have to monitor the conditions," Fisher said. "I do think we are clearly embarking on a path of normalizing Federal Reserve operations."
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It seems to me that they will wait a few months to see how markets react without QE2 for them to remove the support of reinvestment(or extended period for that matter). I'm trying hard but I'm yet to see a clear path to .75bps in hikes in 2011
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It seems to me that they will wait a few months to see how markets react without QE2 for them to remove the support of reinvestment(or extended period for that matter). I'm trying hard but I'm yet to see a clear path to .75bps in hikes in 2011
Dudley:
The central banker also cautioned markets not to read too much into what some perceive as discordant rhetoric coming out of central bankers. "It's important to not overstate the degree of disagreement," Dudley said. "I don't think the disagreement is as deep as some people are representing," and all Fed officials agree on the ultimate goals the central bank is pursuing.
Translation: We are running open mouth operations
The central banker also cautioned markets not to read too much into what some perceive as discordant rhetoric coming out of central bankers. "It's important to not overstate the degree of disagreement," Dudley said. "I don't think the disagreement is as deep as some people are representing," and all Fed officials agree on the ultimate goals the central bank is pursuing.
Translation: We are running open mouth operations
ECRI on future inflation growth and the problems of central banks being behind the curve: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/2137/
A couple of interesting related slides here: http://www.businesscycle.com/reuters/news/2011/april/pdf/1zf3651leanqc00.pdf
ECRI's black box model indicated rates around 4-5% were appropriate by the end of 2002, yet the Fed waited for another two years.
Now in early 2011, the ECRI FIG model indicates rates of approx 2% to be appropriate. Let's see if the Fed waits another 24 months while assuring they extinguish the "tail risk of deflation".
A couple of interesting related slides here: http://www.businesscycle.com/reuters/news/2011/april/pdf/1zf3651leanqc00.pdf
ECRI's black box model indicated rates around 4-5% were appropriate by the end of 2002, yet the Fed waited for another two years.
Now in early 2011, the ECRI FIG model indicates rates of approx 2% to be appropriate. Let's see if the Fed waits another 24 months while assuring they extinguish the "tail risk of deflation".
Quote from Butterball:
ECRI on future inflation growth and the problems of central banks being behind the curve: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/2137/
A couple of interesting related slides here: http://www.businesscycle.com/reuters/news/2011/april/pdf/1zf3651leanqc00.pdf
ECRI's black box model indicated rates around 4-5% were appropriate by the end of 2002, yet the Fed waited for another two years.
Now in early 2011, the ECRI FIG model indicates rates of approx 2% to be appropriate. Let's see if the Fed waits another 24 months while assuring they extinguish the "tail risk of deflation".
I saw the ECRI guy on CNBC and was wondering about this stuff, thanks for posting.
I'm skeptical about their claims that market prices not being good as them, after all they are making a living selling their stuff rather than beating the markets but I will keep an eye on their inflation indicator