Global Macro Trading Journal

It seems to me that if BRKB keeps declining it will be a buying opportunity(I own a small stake there but might buy more). As far as I know if there was insider trading the liabilities will be personal, furthermore the company is so big that even if it weren't it wouldn't matter anyway. I'm assuming Buffett won't go to jail of course, I believe that is a reasonable assumption since the idea to buy lubrizol didn't come from him

And of course the guy's resignation has everything to do with the trade, he is lying that it had not
 
It's off like 1.8% premarket and will probably be up on the day. It's not exactly a winter 2009 buying opportunity.

Other than the fact that this Sokol character likes to make money as much as the next guy, there's nothing to see here, move along.
 
Quote from TD80:

Oh don't worry, it hasn't left you at the station yet. I'm not talking about a daytrade here, I'm talking real macro moves over extended periods of time. Just wait until all the bad news of the aftermath is coming out, and the Nikkei mysteriously seems to ignore it all and mysteriously seems to start picking up positive price momentum. That will be the time to jump on and ride this thing for an extended period of time on the long side.
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Meh. It's just another stock market. The 1995 quake provided a nice short term buying opportunity after Leeson got flushed out, but did nothing to reverse the secular bear market in shares.

Is the quake going to reverse population stagnation in Japan? Is it going to make society any younger? Is it going to make its stifling bureaucracy any sharper? What about interest rates? Japan may do just fine in coming years, but I see little reason why it should outperform any number of other markets or investments.
 
Quote from ralph00:

It's off like 1.8% premarket and will probably be up on the day. It's not exactly a winter 2009 buying opportunity.

Other than the fact that this Sokol character likes to make money as much as the next guy, there's nothing to see here, move along.
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It doesn't look like he did anything illegal, maybe unethical(But that would be a pretty weird view of ethics, where people are not supposed to be self-interested)
Bill Gross does that on massive scale all the time, just dumped all his USTs and now puts letters out saying the gov will default. In the past he would say the government lied about inflation, just after he got underweight USTs compared to the benchmark
 
Kocherlakota from Minn Fed says QE boosted inflation expectations more than expected. FF rate may have to rise 75 bp in 2011.

Bernanke and Yellen frantically texting each other to see who they will trot out to refute him.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Kocherlakota from Minn Fed says QE boosted inflation expectations more than expected. FF rate may have to rise 75 bp in 2011.

Bernanke and Yellen frantically texting each other to see who they will trot out to refute him.
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I'm not sure this is even a bad thing for my trade. Think of this way, the voters at the FOMC have inside their head some kind of Taylor Rule framework calibration of what kind of FF level a certain set of inflation/iexpectations/UR demands. If the hawk is saying his calibration MAY(which sounds like he thinks its a 50/50 or less prob) call for a .75bps FF in 2011 the doves are certainly quite below that(specially when you take into account that Kocher thinks the Fed cant do anything about employment). We know that the chairman, vice-chair and the NYFed run the show, imagine what their calibration looks like
 
Quote from Daal:

Think of this way, the voters at the FOMC have inside their head some kind of Taylor Rule framework calibration of what kind of FF level a certain set of inflation/iexpectations/UR demands.
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This is what I'm getting at in my last post.

BTW Daal just an observation, not that I think you're wrong but when you find reasons to defend/rationalize a position, the probability of that position working dramatically decreases. I have no hard #'s to quantify, but it's from experience and I would think you agree. FWIW, I hope you're right I'm on the same side of the trade.
 
This is exactly what I mean. You are on the same line of thinking as everyone else. Do you know how many people were making similar arguments to yours about the US market in 2008?

Just have a little patience. It would not shock me if in 2012/2013 the Nikkei is one of the best performing indices, and if you can drill down and pick stocks within the macro back drop, a lot of money could be made.

Quote from ralph00:

Meh. It's just another stock market. The 1995 quake provided a nice short term buying opportunity after Leeson got flushed out, but did nothing to reverse the secular bear market in shares.

Is the quake going to reverse population stagnation in Japan? Is it going to make society any younger? Is it going to make its stifling bureaucracy any sharper? What about interest rates? Japan may do just fine in coming years, but I see little reason why it should outperform any number of other markets or investments.
More...
 
Quote from Daal:

I'm not sure this is even a bad thing for my trade. Think of this way, the voters at the FOMC have inside their head some kind of Taylor Rule framework calibration of what kind of FF level a certain set of inflation/iexpectations/UR demands. If the hawk is saying his calibration MAY(which sounds like he thinks its a 50/50 or less prob) call for a .75bps FF in 2011 the doves are certainly quite below that(specially when you take into account that Kocher thinks the Fed cant do anything about employment). We know that the chairman, vice-chair and the NYFed run the show, imagine what their calibration looks like
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Nobody says it was bad for someone long FF futures, as we all know where Bernanke, Yellen, and Dudley stand (print away, then do it some more). It's just news. As usual, though, your analysis shows the rationalization of someone in a losing trade looking to stay with it. You could turn your argument around and say if Kocherlakota is saying 75 basis points, what he's really thinking is 150 basis points. The Fed and other central banks have let things spiral out of control. We now have 3 voters on the FOMC who recognize this and another (Bullard) who isn't a voter. If these guys can shake one of the 3 jesters (Bernak, Yell, Dud) out of their stupor, look out.

Dudley speaks later this morning. Expect a loud refutation of the 3 heroic hawks.
 
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