Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from TD80:

Just look for miss-priced risk. It could be anywhere. If you want to talk macro, Japan will be an opportunity in the near to mid-term future. There are things that are simply miss-priced due to sentiment.
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What opportunity? If you went to the bathroom, you missed it. Shares are nearly back to pre-quake levels as is the yen. Unless shares retest the lows, that deal is done.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Most underperform or get blown up because they are always playing. 99% of the time, trading is a negative expectation game and you will get ground down even faster than roulette at a casino. It's simply impossible to have an edge every day or every week (in the global macro game). Occassionally - maybe twice in a month, maybe twice in 18 months - a great trade comes along. Other than that, most would be better off on the golf course.

Fund managers are expected to be invested all the time and amatuers can't get away from the action or are trying to make up for losses. My greatest advantage (other than a damn keen intellect) is my ability to do absolutely nothing for long stretches of time. I can't remember the last time I've lost on a big trade that I waited and waited for. My losses all come from the need to be doing something.
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You have to have lost to learn and appreciate the art of doing nothing.
 
Got long on Fed futures for Feb 2012, filled at 99.565 and 99.57
If the fed hikes twice I lose a little less than 10% of my networth, on no hikes I make a little less than that loss amount. On 1 hike, I lose like 2%
 
Quote from Daal:

Got long on Fed futures for Feb 2012, filled at 99.565 and 99.57
If the fed hikes twice I lose a little less than 10% of my networth, on no hikes I make a little less than that loss amount. On 1 hike, I lose like 2%
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What about a rate hike scare that sends these puppies down 75-125 points or more in a month or less and you lose 25% of your net worth without the Fed doing a thing. Are you prepared to hold?

Have you looked the performance of FF futures or GE futures in the summer of 2003, when the "rates on hold forever" meme exploded?
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

How could you forget modesty :)?
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Always modest, but I'm not sure it's a strength. Probably keeps me from piling everything into a trade even when I've got the market by the throat.:cool:
 
Quote from ralph00:

What about a rate hike scare that sends these puppies down 75-125 points or more in a month or less and you lose 25% of your net worth without the Fed doing a thing. Are you prepared to hold?

Have you looked the performance of FF futures or GE futures in the summer of 2003, when the "rates on hold forever" meme exploded?
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Thats why I'm not betting big, I can see some scenarios where the Fed gets hawkish from here(as opposed to 2008-2010 where I knew the market was completely wrong). Furthermore the ECB hawk talk made the market price only like 3 gradual hikes for this year, the Fed would probably generate less than that. Plus Fed has the extended period promise out there, which they will probably only remove in a few months at the earliest. I'd argue the earliest is in Jun so they could use the press conference to explain. After they remove they will probably wait a few months to hike. Which would probably mean 2 hikes at the most by Feb(I'm confident the first few hikes will be a measured pace of 25bps, ala Greenspan, even though that was criticized. The criticism of 1% rates didn't stop Bernanke to going even lower and promising more)

If your scenario happened, I'd take the 75% of my networth that is left, buy more and retire
 
A request:

Anybody have a chart of NFPs rate of change vs UR? Basically I want to see how a given change in job growth will reflect upon the UR all things being equal. I realize this is an overly simplistic way to view things but I find the simpler the better.
 
Quote from jj90:

A request:

Anybody have a chart of NFPs rate of change vs UR? Basically I want to see how a given change in job growth will reflect upon the UR all things being equal. I realize this is an overly simplistic way to view things but I find the simpler the better.
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Try economagic.com
 
Oh don't worry, it hasn't left you at the station yet. I'm not talking about a daytrade here, I'm talking real macro moves over extended periods of time. Just wait until all the bad news of the aftermath is coming out, and the Nikkei mysteriously seems to ignore it all and mysteriously seems to start picking up positive price momentum. That will be the time to jump on and ride this thing for an extended period of time on the long side.

Quote from ralph00:

What opportunity? If you went to the bathroom, you missed it. Shares are nearly back to pre-quake levels as is the yen. Unless shares retest the lows, that deal is done.
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