Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from jj90:

Whether it is an asset bubble or the inflation specter makes no difference, trade what the market is doing. Both lead to higher prices, I don't see what the problem is unless you're short.
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Typical comment for the technical, trend-following attitude that makes up 99.8% of the traders on this site, but I think you'll find in this thread and the one that proceeded it that a lot of $ can be made trading against what the market believes.

In fall of 09, the never wrong market was convinced the Fed was going to hike rates multiple times by Dec2010, Mar11, Jun11 ... Some of us thought differently and bought options that paid at 5:1 or greater (depending on when we unloaded them) when the Fed didn't do anything. Better than even NFLX!
 
Random observation of the day. Groupon doesn't seem to be only a discount advertising sort of company, I bought a teeth whitening treatment and there was so many people on it I could only set an appointment for more than a month later, meanwhile the company I acquired from could go bankrupt and I would be stuck with a worthless coupon waiting for some kind of recovery out of the bk court

Sometimes Groupon might actually be working as a middle man in some kind of lending transaction. The discounts aren't as big as they appear since you take credit risk, I suspect most companies there would be rated quite low, possibly junk so its something to keep in mind. I wont take something that I dont believe can be readily acquired/used unless the discount is large enough
 
Matter of fact some companies desperate for a turnaround might use Groupon to raise some quick funds by creating campaigns for large groups of people who can't all use their resources at the same time. I'm sure Groupon will claim they check the company's health before they do it but the truth is they aren't advertising only AAA companies because if they did they wouldn't make any money
 
Quote from ralph00:

Typical comment for the technical, trend-following attitude that makes up 99.8% of the traders on this site, but I think you'll find in this thread and the one that proceeded it that a lot of $ can be made trading against what the market believes.

In fall of 09, the never wrong market was convinced the Fed was going to hike rates multiple times by Dec2010, Mar11, Jun11 ... Some of us thought differently and bought options that paid at 5:1 or greater (depending on when we unloaded them) when the Fed didn't do anything. Better than even NFLX!
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True, and I don't disagree with you here. Seems you have a gripe here though?
 
Bloomberg:
"Lower Greek Rates

Leaders made a provisional agreement to lower Greece’s interest rates of about 5 percent for aid by 100 basis points, and extend the repayment period of the loans to 7 1/2 years from three years.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said the moves would save about 6 billion euros over the life of the loans."

Fiscal transfers instead of reestructuring
 
Hugh Hendry is famously long CDS on many Japanese corporate names, included Tokyo Electric. Probably making windfall profits today ...
 
Quote from Daal:

Hussman
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110314.htm

Says stocks and some commodities are in some kind of bubble. I'm currently defensive on both assets, hold very little of each(except gold and silver which are part of my FX hedge basket)
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There is no bubble in some commodites. The reason why commodiies are going up because Qe2.

In other word, looks like we have a Qe bubble
 
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