Global Macro Trading Journal

Fed futures have been up strongly as a result of the Japanese disaster(It appears that 'minute' levels of radition were found in Tokyo and that is spooking the crap out of people)

I'm seriously considering cutting back even more and there is little upside left(specially when you adjust for the probability of a correction and the opportunity to buy back in cheaper)

I'm also might bring back today the strategy I used a bit last year, shorting puts on VIX spikes. I will choose puts from high quality stocks that a slightly overpriced. Of course the position sizing is extremely conservative and at no point the puts(which have the downside capped because stocks can't become negative) will significantly affect my networth(Of course, I'm sure some people will still mention this or that trader blew up and you should never short puts, they might want to take a look at the insurance industry as evidence against their case)
 
Point is:
GEICO makes a living picking nickels in front of a steamroller. Its a matter of being a good and fast nickel picker and not get greedy
 
Sold some fed futures, I hold now 27% of my original position. I might buy back the 2012 ones if they drop from here
 
Unloaded a chunk of my FCX puts this morning near the open. I forget what I bought them at and I'm trying not to look at my account page (gets me too excited), but I think they're a 3 bagger.:cool:

Also unloaded some of my XLY, EWH, and EWT puts. Doubles in the EWH and EWT, XLY a much smaller gain. Pretty remarkable how XLY holds up in the face of lots of bullets. Pretty much an unbreakable index, it seems. If XLY ever goes, the market is a lot weaker than I think.

Holding onto NFLX put lottery tickets. NFLX is actually way up this morning on GS's desperation upgrade.
 
"The recent increases in the prices of energy and other commodities are currently putting upward pressure on inflation. The Committee expects these effects to be transitory, but it will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations"

Note the Fed doesn't mention growth, the commodity spike in my view and most on the Fed's view, makes monetary policy become tighter than otherwise. All the QE3 talk as a result of a oil spike is nonsense, unless Japan's economy sends the world into a recession
 
Here's what is dangerous about the Japanese situation
according to a WSJ graph, there are 6 nuclear plants units all next to each other, so if one of them blows up the radiation levels will be so high that perhaps work on the other units will not be able to be done(I'm not sure this is correct, its a speculation, the engineers might have the equipment to work in really awful conditions).

If that is the case the probability of a problem there instead of being independent(like 5-10% of a meltdown in each unit) are actually additive(with each meltdown, a prob of a meltdown in other unit increases)
If the meltdown occurs people will fee Tokyo by the droves(And this is a speculation in psychology I'm more comfortable making), regardless of where the wind is blowing. This could tip Japan over into a depression(-10% of GDP) as the disruptions in finance, trade and electricity prove too great for them to bear

If you want to beat the markets you will need special information that most don't understand or have(that is public), in this case I would like to know if the engineers can try to repair the units if there was a meltdown in the area
 
In other words, either everything is going to be ok(they control the units) or things will get really bad(a few units meltdown). If that speculation is true, a middle scenario doesn't seem likely
 
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