Global Macro Trading Journal

srinir said:
In my opinion, this is little bit of data mining.

First of all, recessions are declared only after it has already set in, some times it is declared after the economy has come out of recession. In investing, one can not have mulligan. So you need to test returns based on your favorite recession prediction method.
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I tried to do that a while back but I dont have enough data. Point is, I wont wait for the recession declaration or anything like that, but rather to bailout when I asses the risks of a recession are high enough. But this particular return set doesnt depend on recession calls or anything like that. I was curious about the answer to the question 'does it make sense to worry about a correction that arent the result of a recession?', and the answer is that historically it doesnt. Maybe the future will be different but a paranoid fearful investor (one that bails out BEFORE there is any sign of a recesssion in leading indicators) is fighting that is a big historical record. One needs strong reasons to do so because in all likelyhood the odds are that he will be wrong

srinir said:
You are also using dataset of one of the best performing country over last 100 years. There are other markets which has lost more than 20% without going thru' recession. In some cases, like Russia and China markets have gone to zero.
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That's a good point. However one could also say that the fact that the US has been strong for so long was not a product of randomness, it was a result of strong institutions, ease of doing business, rule of law, etc, etc. And therefore, the odds will be that its market relative strength will continue. That's the Warren Buffett camp. I dont know if that is right but it does raise the question 'Why should I go against the historical record?'. A strong reason will be needed and most paranoid investors (the ones that want to bail out of stocks without pointing to an imminent recession) do not provide one

So that's the balance I want to strike, to not go "full Tilson" (bullish at the top) but also not to be a paranoid bear (as Rosenberg seem to be now) who is scared of events that are quite rare (corrections that aren't related to recessions)
 
Daal said:
that the US has been strong for so long was not a product of randomness, it was a result of strong institutions, ease of doing business, rule of law, etc, etc. And therefore, the odds will be that its market relative strength will continue. That's the Warren Buffett camp. I dont know if that is right but it does raise the question 'Why should I go against the historical record?'.
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You could have said the same thing for UK in 1900's or Japan in 1980's. Markets do change. All those things that made America great is under attack currently. One thing going for US is, it is resource rich. Resource rich countries do fare better over long run
 
Did a quick change of plans. ISM mfg beat expectations by a lot and 10y bonds sold off quite a bit. This is inconsistent with my thesis that the market was shrugging off bad news. So I liquidated my futures. I will reenter if tone and/or price action improves
 
srinir said:
All those things that made America great is under attack currently.
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But as far as the stock market goes, a lot of the Trump disruption has been beneficial. A big tax cut, deregulation, economic stimulus by the rise in the fiscal deficit, etc.
Furthermore, if anything I'm finding the opposite from the rule of law/strength of institutions side. So far he hasn't being able to walk all over the law (which in a 3rd world country, could easily have happened). A lot of his associates are in big trouble, he is being ratted out by his own lawyer, is being investigated all over the place. He is lucky to be president otherwise he would have 2-3 indictments already. At some point he will face impeachment and probably win, but that's the same thing that happened to Bill Clinton. When he is no longer president, if the statutes allow, he will probably be indicted into oblivion
 
Don't want to dwell too much in fine journal of yours.

But will make quick comment
Daal said:
But as far as the stock market goes, a lot of the Trump disruption has been beneficial. A big tax cut, deregulation, economic stimulus by the rise in the fiscal deficit, etc.
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These disruptions are usually done during recessions or when economy is in doldrums, not during when the economy was already humming along. All these have pulled forward growth, but not sure it will maintain long term above trendline growth. Higher deficit along with rising higher interest rate will sap growth at some point.

Regarding strength of institutions, one cannot say strength of institution is stronger now compared to even couple of years back. When president who has taken oath to uphold the law is openly criticizing Justice department to bringing charges to his party members and baiting them to go after opposite party. Congress has become nothing but rubber stamp.

US is no longer the bastion of democracy or has higher moral ground. It has become more inward looking. It has stopped projecting strength and has weakened institutions like NATO and WTO. These are not traits of nation sustaining hegemony in the future.
 
I have been using the site
https://www.tradervue.com/
to track and do some data analytics on my short-term trading and its been great. I'm using more for my day and swing trading but I can see this been very useful for all kinds of traders. I made some interesting discoveries there (the vast majority of my profits come from stocks priced bellow $10 that are highly volatile, all the way up to 12am. All other trades other than those, I'm a net loser/flat on). I'm finding more and more that my thing is swing trading rather than daytrading. The profitability of one vs the other is really significant, Im the type of person who just hates to quit so I keep insisting on it (and the daytrading is profitable, just not as much as the swing) but I will probably have to become a swing trader. I need accept that it fits me more and its vastly more scalabe (even though riskier)

When I have time I plan to setup one for my macro trades +investments and one for my short-term trading. That way I have more control about my performance
 
Ray Dalio's portfolio YTD return:

upload_2018-9-6_4-24-36.png


Although I haven't calculated (as it takes several hours to separate my short-term trading from macro/investing results) my guesstimate is that my performance is similar (anywhere between -1% to +1%).
So I far I have gotten it right to avoid bonds in the first half of the year and own a good amount of stocks but I have gotten wrong to have some of those stocks be EM stocks. I should have lightened up in that exposure late last year
 
Daal said:
Ray Dalio's portfolio YTD return:

View attachment 190891

Although I haven't calculated (as it takes several hours to separate my short-term trading from macro/investing results) my guesstimate is that my performance is similar (anywhere between -1% to +1%).
So I far I have gotten it right to avoid bonds in the first half of the year and own a good amount of stocks but I have gotten wrong to have some of those stocks be EM stocks. I should have lightened up in that exposure late last year
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I don't think that is Ray dalio's portfolio at all. Dalio's portfolio include Inflation linked bonds (like TIPS) and Emerging debts.

https://www.bridgewater.com/resources/all-weather-story.pdf

What you have is more like Tony Robins portfolio.
 
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