GLD up or down in 2014

[badnewsbear]

I started out thinking it'd be down this year, now I'm not so sure. There's a definite Chinese slowdown, and that's hurting all kinds of small, commodity dependent countries. It's part of what's causing this hiccup with the EM markets now.
So, if things are slowing down, and the Chinese CB has to pump money in to get their economy moving faster, well, could be good for gold.
Bought 100 GDX last week, added 100 yesterday. Not sure yet if I'll keep it or add to it or what. If this EM crisis passes with this Turkish rate hike, I'll probably dump it. Will have to watch how the reaction to that plays out.

You have to understand that gold is volatile. As stocks go higher, gold is going to go lower, but it won't be in a straight line. Gold bottomed at 1181 in december then it bounced back to 1270 this month. As we get stronger data, gold is going to go lower. Gold will get spikes that propel it upward, and you have to sell into these spikes. It's inevitable for gold to go lower. It has had 12 straight years of gains (16.74% average gain since 2001.)

 

[actionzip54]

It's inevitable for gold to go lower. It has had 12 straight years of gains (16.74% average gain since 2001.)

Actually, priced in fiat, it's quite the opposite. There is an inevitability of all fiat currencies declining to zero.

The time frame is debatable but the dollar will be worthless long before gold.

 

[badnewsbear]

Actually, priced in fiat, it's quite the opposite. There is an inevitability of all fiat currencies declining to zero.

The time frame is debatable but the dollar will be worthless long before gold.

Ok, did I say anything about gold being worthless?

All I said was gold is going down in price to corrected levels.

 

[trefoil]

You have to understand that gold is volatile. As stocks go higher, gold is going to go lower, but it won't be in a straight line. Gold bottomed at 1181 in december then it bounced back to 1270 this month. As we get stronger data, gold is going to go lower. Gold will get spikes that propel it upward, and you have to sell into these spikes. It's inevitable for gold to go lower. It has had 12 straight years of gains (16.74% average gain since 2001.)

Believe me I know all about gold's volatility.
I got out after the mid 2000s because I couldn't get a handle on it anymore. It was moving in line with the mkt, which isn't normal behavior, and too many people were in it.
But now that it was down last year and shook out enough people, and has risen this month with the turmoil, I'm happier trading it. Looking normal to me again, and like it's back to its historic role as a portfolio stabilizer, which is how I intend to use it.

 

[murray t turtle]

You have to understand that gold is volatile. As stocks go higher, gold is going to go lower, but it won't be in a straight line. Gold bottomed at 1181 in december then it bounced back to 1270 this month. As we get stronger data, gold is going to go lower. Gold will get spikes that propel it upward, and you have to sell into these spikes. It's inevitable for gold to go lower. It has had 12 straight years of gains (16.74% average gain since 2001.)

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B-news bear;
You may well be right,,gold[GLD] to go/trend lower in 2014;
congrats if you are, [not a prediction, wisdom is profitable to direct.]

Actually most all the long term uptrends for gold + stocks are UP;
so long term both stocks + gold trends are UP, at least some stocks pay dividends.Also 12 straight year of uptrends do NOT mean a 2014 downtrend, especially a metal.Time maybe on option sellers side + side of gold longs, sure has been in past;not a prediction.

Frankly i have seen better Up-trends than gold/GLD; which could be bearish for gold in 2014.Not a predictionMost all of long term gold/GLD uptrends are up.

 

[Humpy]

The end of tapering is meant to push gold down. This is meant to be a sign the economy is improving. But because of natural scepticism the price of gold hasn't moved much recently.

 

[Van Halen]

Long GLD off the 2 standard deviation downside move that 2013 provided.

 

[trefoil]

Long term supportive, if this keeps up: Global gold hedging falls to 11-year low

 

[Spectre2007]

lines in gld

 

[Humpy]

Only a matter of time before it is up to previous highs imho